Craps Question Re: House Advantage

Hey Group,

Might the casino advantages that are normally listed for Craps payoffs be wrong when you compare what you should be paid as opposed to what you end up being paid?

What I mean by this is that for example, if a person Places The 6 and/or 8, it is claimed that the casino advantage is about 1.51%. But since True Odds on the 6 and 8 would have the player be paid 6 To 5 (which is 1.2 To 1) but the Player is paid 7 To 6 (which is 1.166666 To 1 [that's 1.16 and 2/3 To 1]), the player is getting 1.166666/1.2 which is actually a return of 97.22221% which would give the casino an advantage of about 2.78%.

And for the Any 7, basically everything that I've read says that it has a casino advantage of 16.67%, but I think that the advantage is actually higher than that (actually 20%). I'm saying this because there are 6 ways of rolling the 7 and 30 ways of it not being rolled. So this means that it is 30 To 6 (which is 5 To 1) against this happening. But when it pays 4 To 1 instead of 5 To 1, 4/5 is 80% which would mean a casino advantage of 20%.

But I also think that basically all of the other Place Bet casino advantage rates may also be wrong. Such as the 4 or 10. The True Odds against the 4 or 10 being rolled before the 7 is 6 To 3 (which is 2 To 1). If the casino is paying 9 To 5 (which is 1.8 To 1), then if the player is being paid 1.8 of 2, then that would be a 90% return leaving a 10% casino advantage, instead of the 6.67% that I've seen listed.

So is this wrong? If so, how is it wrong?

Thank you in advance!

RecVPPlayer

I agree with you analysis of the any 7 bet. I keep seeing 20% vig for the casino no matter how I figure it. If I place $30 on the 6, I will receive $35, I should receive$36--the casino keeps $1 of my $36, that is 2.78%, you may be on to something.

The vig is 2.78% for the 6 and 8, but the vig isn't the same as the house edge because the vig is only collected on losing bets. If you multiply the vig by the probability of losing you get the claimed house edge. 2.78*6/11 = 1.51.

Another way to look at it is if you make 11 $6 place bets on the 6 or 8 on average you'll win 5 and lose 6 bets. 7/6*6*5= 35 win -1*6*6 =36 loss for a net loss of $1. The total amount you bet was $66 so the house edge is 1/66 =1.51%

Interesting! Thank you for that!

RecVPPlayer

If you are concerned about the house advantage, why wouldn't you just play the pass line with full odds? Take a look at the wizardofodds.com, best craps details you can get!

Craps is actually not really a game that I would play especially since it involves (at least for the most part) a lot more money than I want to deal with, but I do like working with numbers and figuring things out and so I figured that Craps could be a good game to analyze to find out about the casino advantage there.

RecVPPlayer