Does anyone ever calculate the expected cost of their gambling?

It's easy to know the expected cost: it's house advantage x total amount you will put in play.

 

For instance, I want to go to the Strip and play some $25 minimum 6:5 shitjack. Assuming I play perfect Basic Strategy, and I'm playing at a full table and betting the minimum, I will be betting $1500 x (-2%}, for a cost to me of $30 per hour based on one minute per hand (full table). Slots, let's say $1.50 per spin, one spin every six seconds, so $1350 x (-10%), for a cost of $135 an hour.

 

It's easy to calculate the expected cost of any game this way in a per hour basis. That's why sports bets are such a good deal--they take hours to resolve.

 

Do any of you "ration" or budget your gambling time this way? I personally never play -EV games, but I know that many do. I'm just wondering if anyone cold-bloodedly figures how much their gambling will cost them.

 

No criticism stated or implied.

I give myself a daily allowance of money that is set aside for each day at the beginning of the trip.  At the end of each day I see how much of that is left.

 

When all is said and done - 

I typically come home with roughly 80% of the bankroll I went out with.      That includes spending on food, entertainment and gambling.

 

Anything above 90% is a winning trip. 

 

Anything below 75%  - I did something wrong and have to do an autopsy on my bad play.     

Edited on Sep 24, 2025 11:01am
Originally posted by: PJ Stroh

I give myself a daily allowance of money that is set aside for each day at the beginning of the trip.  At the end of each day I see how much of that is left.

 

When all is said and done - 

I typically come home with roughly 80% of the bankroll I went out with.      That includes spending on food, entertainment and gambling.

 

Anything above 90% is a winning trip. 

 

Anything below 75%  - I did something wrong and have to do an autopsy on my bad play.     


OK...but I was talking about budgeting for your gambling, specifically. "I will play games X and Y for Z hours, which I calculate, should cost me $X."

 

You're kind of looking at it the wrong way when you are results-oriented. If you have an above-average trip, that's far more likely to be the result of natural variation rather than the quality of your play.

 

The best way to budget is not to allocate $X per day; that can lead to overly short or overly long gambling sessions. Instead, what you should budget is your gambling TIME. Here's how it should go:

 

I'm OK with losing $600 during my three-day visit. I like to play Goober Sucker Bonus Whizbang slots. So, I can lose $200 each day of my visit. Slots return 90%, so I will lose 10% of my bets. Even playing quite slowly, at slots, I make 6 bets per minute, or 360 an hour.

 

I want to spend six hours per day playing slots. Therefore, I can lose 200/6 $ per hour. That number is 33. This means I can bet $330 every hour. At 360 bets per hour, I can afford to bet 90 cents a spin.

 

And if my results are at, above, or below expectation, I'll still play the calculated amount of hours.

 

(And if your bankroll/comfort level is such that a bad gambling day makes you quit early, then that is ipso facto proof that you're overbetting.)

Originally posted by: PJ Stroh

I give myself a daily allowance of money that is set aside for each day at the beginning of the trip.  At the end of each day I see how much of that is left.

 

When all is said and done - 

I typically come home with roughly 80% of the bankroll I went out with.      That includes spending on food, entertainment and gambling.

 

Anything above 90% is a winning trip. 

 

Anything below 75%  - I did something wrong and have to do an autopsy on my bad play.     


That's a ditto for me and how I do it.   Has worked for me lo all these many years.

 

Candy


Originally posted by: O2bnVegas

That's a ditto for me and how I do it.   Has worked for me lo all these many years.

 

Candy


But have you ever figured out the true cost of your play, on an hourly or daily basis? That's at the core of budgeting ANYTHING--"how much will this cost?"

 

The "method" of "Let's play and see how much we lose" seems backwards to me. I generally don't worry about the cost of play, because I don't play losing games like slots or carny poker. But I do use a similar metric when I'm playing an inherently positive game that I can play as long as I wish--sadly, a rare bird these days.

 

I think people get their asses kicked at -EV games precisely because they don't understand what those games cost. Somebody plays dollar slots, they lose $400 in an hour, they say, "Wow, I was unlucky!" WRONG! They were LUCKY! Their expected loss was $540! They done good!

 

Candy, I know you like to play table carny games like Flush Your Money and Five Card Loser, but have you ever thought about the cost of your entertainment?

 

AND, more importantly, have you ever thought about ways to drastically reduce the cost of playing those games? I can elaborate, if you'd like.

I think it is much more important to know how to play multiple games well.  Things are always changing.  If one game is kicking your ass,  do you keep pounding away, or switch it up.  I think results are all that mater

Thanks, Kevin.  I don't disagree with you.   Elaborate if you like, but I'm a few times a year recreational player.

 

Candy

Originally posted by: Brent Kline

I think it is much more important to know how to play multiple games well.  Things are always changing.  If one game is kicking your ass,  do you keep pounding away, or switch it up.  I think results are all that mater


Well, first of all, there are many games, such as slots and keno, that the only way to play them well is to not play them in the first place. But to address your main point, in choosing your game and planning your expenditures, results are completely irrelevant. You can win playing a total shit game or lose playing a terrific game. That is NOT under your control, but choosing your game and how much to risk is.

 

If you're getting your ass kicked, switching to another game with the same negative EV won't be any different than sticking to the game you're playing.

 

It sounds like you're subject to the Gambler's Fallacy, which is the belief that in games with random outcomes, past results affect future results.

 

They don't.

Originally posted by: O2bnVegas

Thanks, Kevin.  I don't disagree with you.   Elaborate if you like, but I'm a few times a year recreational player.

 

Candy


OK...call it unsolicited advice. 😀

 

Table games: ALWAYS play at a full table; fewer hands, less total money bet, smaller losses.

 

If there IS a strategy to the game you're playing, learn it perfectly and don't deviate from it.

 

Don't fall for those sucker side bets. The house advantage on those ranges from 8 to 50 percent-- worse than a slot machine.

 

If you MUST play slots (ewww), avoid themed machines, and choose the games with the SMALLEST maximum jackpots (remember, that $10,000,000,000,000 figure displayed stop the machine was all funded by players' losses).

 

Don't play slots.

 

Make sure your play is always recorded (and rewarded). Take full advantage of promos.

 

Don't play slots.

 

Really, don't.

I calculate my advantage play at my local casino. Looking at how much free play I get and how much I will play to reach a 100.7% return, I then stop.

 

When I go to Vegas, I use my knowledge to minimize my losses and look for opportunities, but I don't calculate my per-hour loss. I'm on vacation, and I make that choice

 

I'm pretty sure everyone who has responded understands the cost of their entertainment; they may not know the per-hour rate, but they know what their expected cost is for their trip. Probably because they've been doing it for years and have learned it organically.

 

Everyone enjoys Vegas differently, that's why we're here, we may get an idea that we can enjoy on the next trip. Cheers!

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