Does anyone ever calculate the expected cost of their gambling?

Actually, most people, including those who have responded, do NOT "understand the cost of their entertainment." They think it's "what I lose." Not at all! It's "my expected loss." Big difference! One number is reckoned beforehand; the other after. And since I'm talking about planning here...

I know that everyone here thinks I don't know what I'm talking about. I could refer you to the Wizard of Odds, or even Bob Dancer (who despite personality, um, quirks, is still a reliable authority on gambling). But I realize that I'm arguing against beliefs, which is the most Sisyphean task in all human endeavor. So, gamble on! Good luck!

I believe in following the trends.  If I see ell the locals playing keno, I am going to learn keno.  If all the bartenders say they play keno, I am going to play keno.  If I am at a craps table and the 6 and 9 are hitting all night, I am playing the 6 and 9.  If 10 red numbers  come up on roullete, I am not switching to black.  If I see people hitting the shit out of a new slot, I am going to hit that slot.  If nobody is playing a certain game all trip, I know better than to play that game no matter what may have happened on prior trips..  To be successful, you have to be able to adapt.  You can be playing the best video poker in the casino, and it can still be slow death if you don;t hit some quads.  And how much do we value a good experience, like clean air and nice drinks and  great rooms.  If you like what you have been getting, then great.  If you don't then maybe learn the games a little better or mix up what you are doing.

There are no actual "trends" in random outcomes. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads 9 times in a row...or 37 times...or 563,888 times...the odds of the next flip coming up heads are...50/50.

I certainly hope you're not serious that a bunch of people playing a game is any kind of indicator that you should be playing it. Or that nobody is playing means that you shouldn't.

I'll tell you something that will probably fall on deaf ears. Your "Gambler's Fallacy" beliefs, that past random events influence future random events, is buried deep in the programming of our ape brains. In Caveman World, we desperately needed to identify patterns, for survival. And fortunately for us, there were very few truly random events that we would observe, or at least, would concern us. So we strained to identify weather patterns, the seasons, the calendar, animal migrations, etc. This successful strategy meant that brains that configured themselves for pattern identification passed on their genes more readily.

And for events that seemed random but weren't, but we couldn't see a pattern, like sickness and death, we invented deities and religion.

Fast forward to Vegas 2025. We are now immersed in an environment where a lot of stuff truly IS random. Our preconfigured ape brains struggle with this. The dealer won six hands in a row? PATTERN! Black came up eight hands in a row? PATTERN! Lots of hard 10s? PATTERN! We can't avoid noticing; our brains are programmed to!

That's why most people truly don't understand randomness: our brains reject the concept. Red comes up ten times running, some mysterious force must be influencing it, right? You see on the news that there were four plane crashes in the last 24 hours, you think twice about tomorrow's plane trip, ja? Must be some connection, right?

And the casinos' shrewd understanding of our brains' programming gives them the ability to exploit us and our wallets. Successful gamblers learn, often only after a mighty struggle, to truly understand randomness and reject the oh-so-tempting Gambler's Fallacy.

One of the most boring games, baccarat, has what I consider the trail of tears (previous results) which I've seen people follow with intense scrutiny to place their bets.  I'm not up on how to use that and have only played the game a handful of times, but is it wrong not to consider it similar to the roulette tote board that people eagerly watch and bet?  The tote is there for the casino as they know people fall for the gambler's fallacy even though the wheel has no memory.

Personally, I bring a certain amount, try to split it into a reasonable amount per day and use as many comps and free play as I can.  I do play some slots but try to play games with minimal reels and as few symbols as possible, games such as top dollar and pinball.

Then mostly DDB VP and always looking for progressives, and if a short session some high variance TDB.  I can't say I'm an advantage player at all, but I do try and be reasonable with my bets and game selection.  BJ has to be 3:2 or I won't play at all, and occasionally play Pai Gow while hanging out with friends.  That game I lose at since I do play the sucker bet like a fool, but it is a slow burn.

Baccarat results, unlike blackjack results, are only affected by what cards have come out of the shoe to a very limited extent. That's why they'll let you sit there and count down the shoe until your eyeballs fall out. That's why Phil Ivey tried to cheat rather than beat the game legitimately.

Besides, the results display doesn't report the individual cards that have come out--just the results. So yeah, it's pretty much exactly like the foolette loser board.

Your slot selection is reasonable, as the higher the top jackpot, the faster you'll bleed out while hoping you'll hit it (which you won't). I simply can't stand the basic reality that putting $100 in a slot is exactly like trading a $100 bill for four twenties and a ten. That isn't within my definition of "fun."

While the house advantage at Pai Gow Poker is about five times that of the better BJ games, there are far fewer decisions per hour --and about half the hands are pushes. So your cost per hour is about the same as BJ. And you can usually find $10 PGP, while even a decent 3:2 BJ $15 minimum is a rare bird.

BTW, NEVER play Face Up and Not Breathing Pai Gow Poker. A MUCH worse game.

I think that with all the shuffle machines, that Baccarat is one of the better games if you pick one side and vary your bet.  There is a diffinate skill, but  somewhat boring.  Also easier to  lose if you have been drinking and get on the wrong side of a run.  We used to live at the Pai Gow tables and the Black Jack switch games until the shuffle machines made those games unplayable.  The Pai Gow bonus side bet was a good one.  I guess that is why you can't find it anymore

Inigo, have you found a good Pai Gow game.  We would love to play if you have.  Seems like the Fiesta was the last good one we played at.  When the casinos had all the drawings Pai Gow was the place to be as you got a ticket everytime you got a good bonus hand,  Suncoast , Fiesta, and Binions  all had good tables

No, I've only played at the Plaza and its gotten worse every time I've gone back and it is a Face up game.

We still play it just to hang out and socialize, but nobody can convince me that the auto shuffler doesn't pick the cards for the players.  The dealer nearly always has that one kicker or a massive back hand like a full house or straight when you finally get a hand you think might win.  The best you can hope for is a push, which happens far less than I think it should.

It should happen a bit less than half the time (since a "copy" can turn a tie into a loser). 

I think the autoshufflers are honest. No need for them to cheat when they have an inherent 3% advantage.

One of the reasons why your big hands seem to get countered by the dealer's so often is that your big hands, like a four of a kind or a flush, make the deck more homogeneous. If you remove all of one rank from the deck (like if you got dealt QQQQ), then the chance of any other hand getting quads goes up by 10%.

You can also observe this when you have two pair, all the other hands are more likely to have two pair as well. Your flush makes other flushes more likely. Etc.

The above knowledge is worthless in Face Up but can be used profitably in the regular game.