Fire Bet Hedge

I rolled 4 numbers on the craps Fire bet and started to wonder what I should do after I rolled the fifth number. My question: Should I lay against the last number I need in case I don't make it to guarantee a higher win if I don't, but reduced win if I do? Example: I had $2 fire bet so after 5 numbers I am guaranteed $500. Assume I need the 8 for my sixth number. If I make the sixth number I win $2K. If I lay $600 I win $500 if I don't make the 8, making my win $1,000. If I make the 8, I win $1,400 instead of $2K. Is there a mathematically correct thing to do? The best answer for an individual probably depends on how conservative a gambler one is. I would probably go for the $2K with no hedge bet. Thanks in advance for any replies and/or comments.

Personally I would never hedge. Keep the hot streak going, don't mess it up!



****edited for correction***

Mathematically you shouldn't hedge because you end up paying the 5 percent commission on lay bets. The only exception to this is if a player at the table is betting the don't pass on a number you need and can convince him to lay odds for you because he can hedge at the true mathematical odds.

Thanks for the reply. Mathematically your argument sounds right. However, for the 5% vig ($30?), I can guarantee a win of either $1000 or $1,400 compared to much wider range of $500 or $2,000. It just seems like many players would want to "lock-in" that lower end of $1,000, for only $30. And, I still have a chance of making the sixth number and making ($2,000 - $600 lay - $30 vig)= $1,370.

Turns out, I didn't have to worry about this dilemma anyway...Scott

Eckerts,

I have sold many stocks to take a profit and see it continue higher the next day and felt silly about it but I have also sold other stocks right on time and saw the stock go lower and thought I was a genius!
As a long time craps player I wouldn't even think twice about throwing $30 down (the 5% vig) to guarantee the win of either $1000 or $1,400. If you hit, you have a great craps story to tell and a bunch of money, if you don't hit it you still have a great craps story and all of the money you hedged against!
I have done the walk of shame too many times vs the jumping for joy hop to take chances that big! just my humble opinion.
I have also posed this question to the dice setting web site to see what pro's would do. If I get a reply, I will let you know

weggie

Thanks for the reply. The more I think about this, the more I am agreeing with you. I am an "advantage dice player" and didn't know there was a dice setters' forum here. Thanks - I will look for it. Scott

eckerts
I checked around a little and this is what I found.
The reply from Beau Parker (aka the dice coach), 2 others web sites and two other fellow craps players almost uniformly say to go for it!.....(www.dicecoach.com)
They also almost uniformly threw out the mathematics involved. One went so far to say, if you want to look at mathematics, craps is a negative expectation game and you shouldn't be playing in the first place!(sounded like he was yelling at me!)
They seem to be focused on #1 you shouldn't be gamboling if you cant afford it, and #2 If you "can afford it"......you might as well go for it, in fact you almost 'have' to go for it!
I personally am still sticking with my original advice of......hedge that bet!
By the way, this was a very though provoking question for me as a craps player......thanks for asking!

weggie

weggie44 - Thanks for the updated reply. I appreciate the research you did to survey others. I actually took a class from Beau years ago and respect his opinion. Having said that, I would probably still lean to hedging the bet. I am an engineer and tend to be more conservative in my play, so guaranteeing a higher minimum for $30 in exchange for a lower maximum is a reasonable trade-off (to me).

Of course, this assumes I have the $600 to lay against the 6th number (but I better after making 5 numbers, huh?).

Curious - are you a dice setter also?

eckerts,
Yes I am a dice setter. I have no idea how good I am as I have never been able to quit my day job, but I am a firm believer that it works to some extent so I keep setting.
My actual favorite dice setting play is to find an empty table or one with very few people, then make a small 'don't pass" bet say $10 or $15, throw the dice 5/5 up and 6/6 facing me, This set gives me a good amount of outside numbers 4-5-9-10. Hopefully I hit the magic 4 or 10. I will then lay odds on that number based on how well I am throwing that night and of course the table odds.
After all that, I then will set the dice 5/2 up and 4/3 facing me....the any seven set. At this point in the game, the 7 is the most likely number to come out anyway, so why not help it along?
I have done pretty good with this system but I hate losing other peoples money so like I said, I only do it on an empty table or one with a mouthy drunk guy whom has managed to piss me off some how.
My avatar shows me laying on a bed at the Las Vegas Hilton with a plaque and $4500 that I had just won at there annual craps tournament (no longer being done since the hotel was sold) Now that was exciting!!!! I came in 5th----1st place was $50,000. I was in second place for $10,000 until the last roll and got booted all the way to 5th!
How about you? are you any good? I have hit 4 numbers before but not on a fire bet. That must have been exciting huh?


weggie

Like you, I'm a believer but don't always execute 100%. I have had very good rolls and then sometimes can't do anything but point-seven out. Overall, however, I manage to make a profit most years. I track ($ W/L) for every session I play, so I know the truth (even if my wife doesn't). I almost always use a hard-ways set and shoot stick-left. This seems to be my sweet spot. I usually make a 2-way ($1 each) hard 6/8 bets and recently I rolled four hard-6s out of 6 rolls at Silverton's. I parlay the 1st win, and increase the bet by $5 each time after that. So the bet was $1, $10, $15, $20 and the win for me and dealers was $85, $130, and finally $175. That was a lot of fun (and I made some new dealer friends).

I have never entered a craps tournament but have been invited to the one at Primm. Have you ever played in that one?

I like nothing more than taking out a loud DON'T player when I am shooting. I recently took one out who would have made a killing if he was on the DO side with me. He was laying $500/$600 against my points and I cleaned him out. Of course, I don't play to do that, I play to win $ for me, but I enjoy it when it happens to an A-hole.

I like your playing strategy but don't like playing the DON'T very much.