GAAH!

This is an adjunct to my recent post about adherence to the proper strategies.

Quite some time ago, I was playing $1 10/7 Double Bonus at, I think, the Palms. I was dealt Q, QJ10 suited, X. Now, I knew that in 10/7 DB, you break a high pair for QJ10 or KQJ suited. But I had been getting my ass kicked and balked at throwing away a winning hand. So I drew three, and yep, the first two cards out were the AK of that QJ10 suit. $4,000 down the tubes!

I attempted to make myself feel better by telling myself that the RNG was still churning after my initial hand was dealt and had I held the QJ10, the draw would have been totally different. Except...that wasn't true. This particular model of machine, at least, dealt ten cards as soon as you pressed the DEAL button. Five went to the initial hand, and the other five were placed in a queue. So the AK were already sixth and seventh.

In retrospect, I guess I was fortunate. I know a number of players who violated the proper strategies and got lucky, and never followed those strategies again--which ultimately cost them money, of course. One was a woman I called "Ms. Ace-Ten Suited," because she famously always held those cards (which is wrong about 99% of the time). And she hit about five royals doing that, so she drew the gloriously stupid conclusion that her instincts knew better than that silly ol' math stuff the experts proposed. Of course, she eventually went broke.

That hurts!  I too played those $1 10/7 games but man, wasn't that about 12-13 years now since they were in there?  I used to play at the center bar on the ends before the renovation.  Had a lot of good times there.  3X slot club coupons on top of it or occasionally they had multipler swipes back then.  I haven't been back to Palms since like I bet you 2017/2018 other than to eat.  

Oh, I'm talking more like 20 years ago. I played on multiplier days and earned enough points to take the whole family out to eat twice a week. Not to mention those great +EV promos like the VP bingo cards.

I think the last time I played at Palms was when they still had those six FPDW machines, relegated to the very back. I hit 2222 on a Loose Deuces game, came back the next day, and they were gone. I've always wondered if I applied the killing blow :)

I play mostly Bonus, 3/5 play.  The two-fer for two pair makes my money last longer. 

I cringe when I'm dealt suited A10XXX, knowing I should toss the 10.  I can't help but think in my mind the "but for", meaning "but for" me tossing the 10 card maybe I'd have pulled the other three suited for the royal flush.    Actually I've never seen that happen, to me anyway, but I still cringe.

Candy

Allow me to walk you through Probability Land.

There are 47 cards remaining in the deck. You have three cards you want. The probability of drawing one of them is 3/47. Now you must draw one of the remaining two cards. The probability of that is 2/46. Finally, you must draw the one remaining card. The probability of that is 1/45.

As you need to do when calculating the probability of multiple events all happening, you multiply the odds fractions/percentages together. The result is (1 x 2 x 3)/ (47 x 46 x 45), or 6/97,290. A little worse than sixteen thousand to one. So you shouldn't worry that you would have scored the royal by holding the A10. You wouldn't have.

The real reason to not do that, though, is that you're pretty much killing the value of the Ace. You're drastically lowering the chance of getting four Aces, as well as substantially lowering the chance of pairing the Ace (three chances now instead of four) and achieving lesser hands such as three of a kind and two pair. Being too aggressive in video poker makes you bleed faster and ultimately lose more.

I was at the Orleans a few years ago, they had a $.25 7/5 Bonus Poker at the front bar with a progressive Royal which had reached over $2,100. I confirmed it was +EV so I started playing, trying to play fast to hit before anyone else did. I was dealt 3 to the royal with a high pair, I instinctively kept the high pair and got the other two to the royal on the first 2 cards out on the draw. It occurred to me at that moment that the 3 card royal was probably the correct play in that situation and I later confirmed I should have held the royal draw. Shortly after someone hit the progressive and I ordered a free beer, then another, then another, then.......

There's a book on VP progressives, by whom, I forget, probably out of print now, and the author mentions emphasizing the strategy variations mandated by the size of the jackpot. You drill those into your head before you start playing, and remind yourself that the royal is the only reason you're playing.

I've never really liked progressives; you bleed fast while trying to hit, and then after you've been there for five hours and you're down $400, some happy chap wanders up, sticks in a $5 bill, and hits it.

At that point, beer is indeed the only solution.

That's exactly right.  It would have been right to keep the 3 to royal at that level. 

I used to play at Red Rock back in mid 2000s and early 2010s and that sports bar progressive would get up there.  Definitely changes strategy a bit.  Not even sure if they still have them as I don't go to Station casinos anymore since they changed their slot club to .05%.  I'd see that progressive get to +$5500 at $1 level many times.  Once I hit it at $6400.  I actually hit it twice in my career and I'm just a 4-5 trip-a-year Vegas player.  Who knows what it is like now or what the meters are like.  This was BP 99.17 game.  But I also got pounded playing it a few times as well.  

I played that FPDW bank at $0.25 at Palms as well during that time period I mentioned above.  It was a lot of fun for not much of a cash outlay.  Hit that one once for royal at $1,325.  But the best machines were four oddly placed 10/7 $1 games at the bars.  Two at center bar.  One at stage bar and one by sportsbook bar. (all on the end of the bars)  Have no idea why those were 10/7 and others were not.  But my buddy and I hit those every trip for like 10 years while they lasted.  Maybe it wasn't even that long the more I think about it.  But it sure was fun.  One trip I hit royals on back to back days.......that was the only time in my life I've hit two single line royals on a single trip.  This was all at $1 level.  We did put in like 20-25 hours of VP each trip so it wasn't nothing.  

Man those were the good old days and I'm still in my lower 50s when I say that.  Nowadays......I just play to break even theoretically and maybe get some free rooms someplace.  I've actually lowered my denomination the last 10 years as it is just break even at best now.   A mix of .50 cent and .25 cent.  My buddy makes fun of me because I can afford it now and back then it was a stretch at $1 levels.  But I just tell him......playing $1 now is no fun if I just feel like it is breakeven at best.....so why do it?  And what about those W2Gs then too?  (Not break even now.) 

Sorry for the rambling down memory lane.....

The book Kevin mentioned is "The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives" by Frank Kneeland.

Heavy on the math. Also had a section on various promotions that paid over 100%.

I loved the old Palms. Food was exceptional. The French restaurant Alize on the top floor. Little Budha was my go to place for Chinese food in all of LV. 

My niece was getting married and I hosted a dinner at Alize. About 10 or 12 guests. Had comp dollars to cover everything. What surprised me was I was able to use my comp dollars for the tip!

Mr, Maloof (was George his first name?) knew how to operate a locals casino. First The Fiesta and then the Palms.

Jerry Ice - I moved to LV in 1991. Love those trips down memory lane. Fond memories. Too bad the VP has gone way downhill since then,

It was George Maloof.