How strong is the correlation

Between success playing "free" games and success playing the real thing?

In other words, if you do well in simulations are you likely to also do well in video poker or blackjack presuming the same rules and playing the same variations of the games involved? Since both vp and bj are games of skill instead of luck-based I would think the correlation would be pretty strong. As opposed to say poker, where there are so many other strategies involved at the table.

I'd say that the correlation is pretty strong! I would also encourage that during practice that you have other noise going on like the radio to more help simulate conditions in a casino because there we also have to deal with distractions.

RecVPPlayer

If you are using a free casino site that is linked with a real casino site that may be a different situation. I'm talking offshore here. I've heard (but have no proof) that those sites will often make it easier to win on the free site with the hope that you'll be encouraged to join the real site and deposit cash.

That's a good point Mickey....but I'm actually using the myVegas blackjack, which actually has worse rules than most Strip casinos. as in no re-splitting anything (not just aces). I'm pretty much holding my own, in addition to making some very speculative plays (since it's free).

The Wizard Of Odds website has a Free Blackjack Play link, so check into that one as well if you're interested.

RecVPPlayer

Very Good Topic. I have spent a great deal of time with this so here is what I can share:

1. Poker: I believe Mickey Davis is right. Personally I had bad experience with spam and "attacks" on my computer starting the day I signed up for the Golden Nugget free poker tournaments.

2. As for games that are single event and random number driven ie. video poker or card games where the deck is shuffled after each hand, the free sites should be good. The wizard of odds is good.
I like a site called www.ultimate-texas-holdem-online.com
They have: Mississipp stud
Texas Holdem Bonus
Let it Ride
3 card poker
crazy 4 poker
4 card poker

3. For games that deal cards that are not replaced until only a certain number of cards remain, specifically
blackjack, baccarat, Spanish 21
The free sites available are not accurate beyond the first hand of the shoe.
That is fine for practice drills to learn strategy, but not for comparing performance against live play.
I personally spent a great deal of time with expert programmers to create simulation software for these games. Creating a truely random shuffle was not easy.

I never do well on my Iphone blackjack game, but I usually do well playing in the casino. Haven't figured that one out.

Maybe the rules are better in the casino than on your Iphone. What are the rules in each place? What is Blackjack paying in each place? How many decks are they using in each place?

RecVPPlayer

It depends on the strength of the algorithm. And even with a strong algorithm, there's always variance.

Developing an accurate algorithm for no limit hold'em may be impossible, although heads-up no limit against one opponent over perpetuity might be possible. I.e. someone with enough knowledge might be able to model the famous Nick the Greek v. Johnny Moss poker game, including no limit hold'em. It would be creepy though, because you'd need to model their posture, facial expressions, tone of voice, etc.