Both Bodemeister at 4-1 and Union Rags at 9-2 are real. On Saturday Union Rags should be the favorite, he is a good closer. Bodemeister looked like a champion in the Arkansas.
Hansen was looking good but I don't think there is enough horse left there.
My money will be on I'll Have Another at 12-1 or Creative Cause at 12-1. For a long-shot I'll put $2 on Trinniberg at 50-1 who looks better every day.
Caveat: 9 days ago I had surgery, still under anesthesia and pain killers I managed to log onto a horse betting site and try out my new system. I would have been wiped out but my 20-1 pick wheezed across the finish line in first and got me back to just underwater. You may want to take my picks with a grain of something.
rockymet---We bet three Kentucky Derby Futures at Fitzgeralds in Las Vegas on 1/12/12. They were Union Rags 12-1 Creative Cause 22-1 Hansen 22-1. Well at least they are all there for the Big Dance. We will be at Wheeling Island Casino and Hotel to add a few bets as well. Tri's (I'm a sucker for them). I do like the key Wheel with 5 other horses.
An exacta boxed with Union Rags and Bodeimister could come through and pay well. I see too many quality horses in this field to make exotic bets pay. I'm leaning toward Creative Cause across the board and will make my final decision Sat afternoon.
While I rarely make money in the Derby, I find the other 12 races at Churchill Downs on Derby day to be fertile ground. I've found value bets in every race except the 3rd.
Well, it turned out good; we bet about $160 including about 10 $1 exacta boxes and $.50 trifecta boxes and hit on one. So we got a return of a bit over $900.
