Let's talk about what happens if you hit a sizable jackpot--not "life changing," but nice: say, $20,000. Let's use the 24% tax rate mentioned in the recent LVA video.
Scenario 1: you've not gambled at all this year. You will owe $4,800 in federal taxes. So, your real payout, even before state taxes are subtracted, is only $15,200. This effectively increases the disadvantage you've been fighting. But you say oh well, I won. Fair enough.
Scenario 2: You're $20K in the hole. You hit! You're even! Yay!
Not so fast.
You still owe taxes on $2000 of your "winnings." In order to truly get even, your jackpot would have to have been $22,222. As it is, you will still owe $480 on your nonexistent net win.
Scenario 3: You're 50 grand in the hole. That 20 grand you won fills in the hole a bit. But you're still down $30K. What do you need to win to break even for the year?
You might say, "Well, $30 grand, right?" That would have been true before. But since $5000 of those losses that put you in that hole "don't count," you need to win $35,000, not $30,000, to get even.
These numbers just get worse and worse as you play more and more. You can be consoled by the fact that the taxes you pay will go toward buying another fancy jet for the CEO of the corporation that owns your favorite casino.