The Palms $5 blackjack table: rules / conditions / outcome

We were in Vegas last week and I spent a fair amount of time (about 12 hours total) at the Palms one and only 24/7, $5, 3:2 blackjack game. The rules were DA2, DAS, RSA to four hands, late surrender, and H17. The game is dealt via CSM and I played very early mornings during the week to limit competition for a seat. I was always able to get on at these rooster times. The house edge on this game was calculated at .48%. I often played two hands ( $10 - $30 per hand) to reduce variance and more often than not there were other players at the table; I don't know how much EV was affected if at all by the conditions ( it was always negative). I estimated that I played an average of 80-90 hands per hour ( $1600 -$2000+ action per hour at 2 hands) over the entire course of play. I eeked out a small 3-figure win after 4 days of this type play. The fifth day was the house's catch up day; I was dealt stiff after stiff and 14 seemed to be the typical hand for me during this am session. I lost roughly half of what I'd accumulated the previous four sessions. A somewhat typical swing of blackjack outcomes for a basic strategy player ( although  a small win for four consecutive sessions is likely not typical but quite possible; the mathematicians can calculate those probabilities). Despite all that, 3:2 tables with low limits and decent rules in Vegas are a rarity and , sum total, it was an enjoyable overall experience. 

The downside of playing when it's not busy is that you get more hands per hour, which increases your expected loss for any given time frame. That's why I prefer to play at a full table and watch other players struggle to add 7 and 8 ("is that a 21?").

Putting $1800 per hour into action x 12 hours is $21,600 total action. That's an EV of right about -$100, assuming you play perfect Basic Strategy.

Guessing that your small three-figure win was, let's say, $150, and you lost back half of that, you won $75 overall--when your expectation was to lose $100. Doing this calculation in my head, you were about 1.5 standard deviations above the mean, which translates to about a 16% probability. You'll only do that well in one trip out of every six. Rejoice!

Note: I'm assuming that you played 80-90 hands per hour, as you stated, not 80-90 deals. Given that you were playing two hands per deal, the former would be quite slow and the latter would be quite fast. That's why I used your hourly action estimate.

I played two hands about 75% of the time and I estimated they dealt about 80-90 rounds ( as a better term) an hour depending on how occupied the table was. It probably averaged 2 other players  as a wild guess, though I had several heads up interludes too. Yipee-ty-yay.

80-90 rounds per hour is quite fast and illustrates how much a CSM speeds up the game. When I dealt handheld single deck back in the 1980s, we were told that we were doing quite well if we managed 60 rounds per hour on a full or mostly full table.

When I played, it was with basic card counting on single deck, so I had a small advantage and wanted to get in as many hands as possible, but let's say you're a Vegas turista (Spanish for "sucker") playing $25 6:5 shitjack at the Golden Commode. If you take a bathroom break, you don't play, say, ten hands, so you don't lose (2.5%) x ($250), or $6.25. Peeing instead of playing saves you enough for a Starbucks coffee, which will make you want to pee again, which will save you more money, and thus continues the great circle of life.

My buddies and I counted cards in the 90s and maybe very early 2000's in Vegas in my 20s mostly.  We got kicked out of just about every Vegas casino we played in.  Most of those on the strip at the time though.  We read all the books and kept two different counts going and usually played separate tables.  Spread $5-$50 a hand based on count but our base bet was only $5, because at the time we didn't have a lot of $.  All that did was make me completely despise this game.  I don't think I've sat at a BJ table for more than ten minutes since maybe the mid 2000's.  It just makes me miserable.  The dumb people playing and especially the superstition of other players is maddening.  We did fine and eeked out very small profits over the long haul.  The casinos never got very angry at us.  A pit boss would just come over to us at one point and tell us that BJ was closed to us for the rest of the day but feel free to play our machines.  Sometimes they would toss in a free buffet.  The key was just don't make a scene.  

What I could never understand, was why did they care that a bunch of recent college grads were doing this at such low stakes?  I read in a few books that they were afraid we were scouts and would maybe signal some big whale when a count got really good.  But I still find that hard to believe.  Not sure why I'm telling this story now but mainly because you guys crunched some BJ numbers above.  

The funny thing is I've not played for over 20 years but I can go right to a BJ table today and count almost flawlessly as it is just cards "blocking out" other cards for the most part and then dividing by half decks left. We counted and then side counted A's and 5's as a secondary type of count.  

My experience is similar. 100% agree.

Well, maybe I don't despise BJ. But I can't find any fun in it like I did in my pre-counting days.

And the profits of the card counting weren't enough to offset the general unpleasantness of the work.

Fortunately, there's still craps!

Jerry, I too found counting to be mildly profitable but monotonous and annoying. Fortunately, much, much better prospects came along, with +EV video poker, couponomy, mailers, and promos. That was the mid-90s.

I played at maybe 60 casinos and never got backed off. Sometimes, I put out ridiculous bet spreads and no one cared, like when at the Western Village in Reno, single deck, I spread $2-50.

I worked in downtown Vegas during the late 80s and 90s and made a habit of dropping in to the Horseshoe after work. I played BJ with a $1-10 spread, usually still wearing my black and whites. I probably negated whatever advantage I may have had by frequently playing a dollar for the dealer. After 3-4 hours, the pit boss would always write me a breakfast comp.

Those who remark that I frequently complain about present-day Vegas don't understand what an absolute blast it was to live and gamble there 30+ years ago. The most fun place in the galaxy, including the Planet of the Nymphomaniac Three-Breasted Women.

It really was good.  Today you are just going out there to breakeven at best and/or get lucky on a trip or two.  Maybe scrub out some comps to make it a cheap vacation.  Nothing more and nothing less.  

I actually find better EV opportunities at our local Indian casino but those are sparse.  I really only go to Vegas now a days to get away from work and bad WI weather.  And then I spend most of my time in Henderson or downtown.  The latter I don't even really enjoy.  I think pretty soon I won't be going at all anymore.  

The Palms BJ table I described  , again, involved a CSM; counting is pointless. The appeal here for me are the low minimums and a very good set of rules for basic strategy play; the conditions at this table ( despite the prevalence of unskilled players ) are about as good as it gets right now in Vegas when considering those parameters ( low mins./ good rules). It's always good to keep in mind as well that the house edge on such a game (.5% or less) is much more palatable than the the great grand majority of all the other possible wagers in any casino.  

Those of you who now "despise" the game..I get it. I've maintained a long-standing,  love/hate relationship with this game where negative variance outcomes and rote monotony can drive one away. Counters have to wait for true count advantages which sometimes never arrive in a shoe and advantages often don't last long in order to eek out potential small profits; and eventually they kick you out anyway. Lots of opportunity for frustration and negative attitudes to emerge. lol But it beats the Big Wheel and Keno.

For me, ever since counting became pretty much pointless, the game has been social and a time-killer. I enjoy telling whoever will listen that there's a single best way to play every hand vs. every dealer upcard. I'm most often moved to do that when I see someone with a hard 15 vs. a ten grunting and straining like someone giving birth to a baby porcupine pointed the wrong way, as if they can somehow divine whether or not the dealer has a small card in the hole. Or also, when I observe someone playing horribly and bitching about his bad luck.

I'm amused by the fact that if everyone played good (not even perfect) Basic Strategy, the casinos couldn't afford to offer the game. Thus, their profit is Stupid Money.