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Originally posted by: chadley
jm - I respect your opinion, but you are way off base on this one.
This promo has nothing to do with the free play machines you speak of. Those (free play, 40/20, etc) machines are notoriously tight and aren't even available for regular play because they don't meet the legal minimun payback numbers.
If you honestly believe this promotion has an EV of $15 or less, you need to spend some time learning math and statistics.
Your 10% hold cutoff point is way off for this promo, but even if it wasn't...unless you were playing a wide-area progressive, which almost certainly wouldn't qualify for this play because of contractual obligations, you would be hard pressed to find a $1 machine that holds 90% or more on the strip.
Finally, the intent of the Riv is quite obvious...to get new players in the door and signed up for the players' club. They are looking to build their customer base, and are willing to risk losing money in the short term to do so. They will use the information they gain from this promotion to keep good players (those who have no clue) coming back. Those players will eventually make up for any losses the casino incurrs during the promo. As a player, you need to be able to look objectively at a promotion and decide if it offers positive EV. And this one offers positive EV in spades.
You asked how I can possibly know a machine's hold percentage, so how am I supposed to identify a $1 machine that holds more than 10 percent? And why wouldn't the Riviera set all the $1 machines at 85% hold until the promotion is over? I would like to hear from someone how much got held on the first $500 of free play reimbursement. No great wins reported on here so far. Where are the people who have won many thousands? And, that being the case, why even worry about free play reimbursement-just play your own money and clean house. I was being silly on my earlier estimates, but the $500 EV claim is just ridiculous. Whatever the true EV is, it is based on playing the best returning machines which we have said is indeterminable. You still aren't sure what machines will be eligible for the rest of the free play, and they seem to be dwindling by the day. And don't forget, any positive EV is surely contingent on your being given all the free play promised.