South Point's progressive jackpots promotion: value calculation

Good 24/7 in February: casino-wide progressives, one starting at $10,000 and hitting by $25,000; another simultaneous one starting at $1,000 and hitting by $2,500. They both reset to the start value when hit. The larger progressive, when hit, awards $25 to all active slot players.

My first assumption is that this applies to VP and Keno machines as well as slots. My second assumption is that you can tell how close the larger jackpot is getting to the must-hit point of $25,000. They say you have to have played at least $1 in the last 60 seconds to be eligible.

I don't know how long it takes for the larger jackpot to hit on average, but they say the smaller one will hit 3 times a day on average. So just for fun, let's game out a scenario:

Let's use my second assumption and stipulate that you can indeed tell the current amount of the big progressive. You wait until it's $24,000 and resolve to then play until somebody hits it. What's the value to you of doing that?

South Point has 2,200 machines. Let's make the assumption that 2/3 of those machines are being played--reasonable, since other players will be aware of the impending jackpot. So your chances of hitting the big progressive are 1 in 1,466--let's be pessimistic and say 1 in 1,500. $25,000/1,500 - $16.66. Plus, you will definitely get the $25 casino-wide bonus when it hits. So being there when it hits is worth a little over $40.

Plus, there's an indeterminate chance to hit the little jackpot. It moves between $1,000 and $2,500. That's an average of $1,750. The small progressive hits three times a day, So let's assume that $5,250 is given away every 24 hours. Divide that by the 1,500 machines in play. It's worth $3.50 a day to you, or...about $1.30 an hour. So once again, if you get there and start playing when the big one is at $24,000 and play until it hits, you have an EV of +$40 + ($1.30 x however many hours it takes for the big one to hit).

Of course, it's not known how long it would take for the biggie to advance that last $1,000 or if it would ever get that far without already hitting. But South Point has a dual incentive to let it build: one, it entices players as it grows, and two, every time it hits and they reset it, they're throwing another $10,000 in the kitty.

I'm sure Bob Dancer knows all about this, how it works, and how much it's worth, but he ain't telling. He only informs us of good plays and promos after the fact. Anyone who visits this month and observes, I'd be grateful for any info you could provide.

BTW I am assuming that the game you play is NSUD, so your EV of playing the game itself is essentially neutral: 99.73% + 0.3%.

Your assumptions:

1. The promo does apply to VP machines.

2. You can see the current value of both progressives. They appear on the bottom of some machines and they are on TV screens above the bars.

Okay, then...I can visualize the local lowlifes sitting around scratching themselves and waiting for the meter to get high enough to satisfy them...and of course it hits five seconds before they finally sit down, LOL.

It's a really good promo, like everything they do. South Point deserves our business, especially since almost every other Vegas casino is in full ripoff mode.

100% agree with everything you guys have written.  I am just lukewarm on this promo even though it is good as you both state.  Reason I say that is my standard trip is 3-3.5 days.  You are real lucky if it hits more than once in that time period. (the big one)  Then I'd say you have about a 50% chance you are actually playing when it does.  I've been there plenty of times during this promo.  (Last time I was there for this I did get one $25 free play.)  The reason I say 50% is you'd be surprised how many times it will hit $11K-$14K in middle of the night on your 1st or 2nd night there and then it takes 3 full days until the next one might hit at $24K and you have left to go home.

And yes, the locals do swarm when it gets up to $22K-$25K  In fact, until just recently all you had to do was insert your card and not even play a hand or do a pull on a slot machine.  I did see people jamming in two cards and just waiting Kevin.  Now maybe the card would go inactive there with no bets after a while but they recently added that $1 every 60 seconds to stop that nonsense.  

Now here is the juicy one you may or may not know.  Say the big meter is at $24K and you know it obviously going to hit sometime in the next 3-4 hours lets say.  The poker room has this promotion as well and they don't advertise it real loud.  The way it works for poker is when the big one hits ONLY, they do a random seat for 20% of the big jackpot casino-wide.  I know a friend that actually got that random seat playing poker when it hit a week after I was there. It hit at $12K casino-wide so he got $2400 and had no idea what the hell just happened.  At $24K it is obviously $4800.  Now lets say that meter is $24K at 11pm.  There may be 9-10 tables going so now you are looking at chance of $4800 between 90 players.  Not bad, right?  Oh and when that poker seat is called out, the rest of players at that table also get $100.  I typically will head to play poker if I think it is going to hit.  However, it was $24.5K in the morning and the place was less busy, I'd definitely play VP for it.

That said, as I've written as well, Southpoint is the best.  They know how to make $ on pure volume (being busy) and being fair instead of jacking to their customers.  Great place, great casino.  

And Bob will play it if he is there and it is high enough that he knows it will hit that evening.  For the same reasons everybody else is.  I've seen him there and he has even written about it a few times.....where he got done with dinner and saw it at $2300 and $24K.  

Like my buddy says about me being lukewarm on the promo - all it takes is hitting it once in your life and you will be very happy.  

Thanks Jerry, I didn't know about the poker room promo. Obviously, that's their way to keep the poker room from emptying out when the big jackpot gets close.

Interestingly, it looks like the EV of playing poker when the big progressive is high is not very much different from the EV of playing VP then: $40-50.

Yep, I'm sure you are right about that with the poker room.