an update on progressive 25c VP at M resort

the dolla vp was over 8 large but i dont have what that effort takes. I'm pretty sure at those paytables, the +ep breakover point is way over 10 large. Back down to 25c earth.....the super dubbles something royal yielded somebody over 3000 between when i landed on friday night and when i checked back sunday morning. The others were all well over 1500, except deuces, which had obviously just been hit. By sunday, the largest jackpot was JOB, begging my attention for a 2200 score. Well I didnt, and I have to remind myself the breakover point at 8/5 JOB is way more than the 2200 I was shooting for. At the 7/5 JOB paytable M features, the + ev point is almost certainly 3 large, but I aint the guy to do that math. I couldnt even score a 4OAK that day. So good luck; I made my pilgrimage to M, and left a little poorer.

Hey JMRadford,

I do know that the Break-Even Point (100%) for a $0.25 8/5 Jacks Or Better machine is $2,166.50 and so if it was at $2,200, it then was over 100%!

But also please keep in mind that the higher the jackpot becomes, the higher the Variance (volatility) becomes and the harder it becomes for a player to hit it -- and even moreso when only one person (in a bank of people) is going to win it.

RecVPPlayer

Frank (Frank Kneeland) over on VPFree is suggesting a bankroll, for .25 players of $20,000 for the new progressives at M which he and Bob Dancer helped get installed.

20K for quarter player? Really?

Hey marcr,

That might make some sense depending on which games the player plays (and the game[s]' inherent Variance to start off with and then gets raised) since the game's Variance can pretty easily go through the roof the higher that the Royal Flush jackpot gets. And then on top of that, there is then no guarantee that the Player will end up getting the jackpot and so the Player could fairly easily end up with nothing for all of their work while going after it.

And so since I seem to remember that at least Bob Dancer has always suggested that players have something like at least 3-5 times the Royal Flush value (so at least a $3k-$5k bankroll for a Quarter machine -- assuming that the Quarter machine pays 4,000 coins for the Royal) as their entire dedicated bankroll for the game that the Player is playing, then if there ends up being a Progressive Jackpot for the Royal Flush attached to the game, then due to the ever increasing Variance that now becomes involved (and again, that can become quite high), a good player would be much better off having a lot larger financial cushion set aside to have available to better enable the player to keep on playing so as to better enable the Player to weather the inherent ups and downs that tend to be involed with this kind of Volatile game!

RecVPPlayer

Rec;

My point was a bit facetious. How many quarter players do you know with that kind of bankroll? Even the old saw of 3 to 5 times the Royal (though others have stated 2-4) means a max of $5,000 and my guess few who play quarters have even that size. And for the pros the single line quarter game isnt worth it.

Hi marcr,

I kind of understood that you were trying to be facetious about your question about what Frank had to say, but I understood where those figures that he gave might actually be justified (although I knew that very few people would be able to not only have about $20,000 for their bankroll but also that it might not be worth their playing at all).

I actually checked out 8/5 JOB (and people need to keep in mind that this is a lower Variance game) and at reset its return (with perfect play) is 97.2984% with a Variance of 19.3233 where the Royal Flush contributes 1.9915% to the overall return. And then when the return gets to 100% (at 8,668 coins -- that's $2,166.50 on a Quarter machine), then at that point the Variance is 95.5863 and the Royal Flush is contributing 5.3222% to the game's entire return.

And so with games that start off with an even higher Variance -- especially something like DDB Poker, that Variance can escalate to something really, really high!

And so it may very well mostly not be worth chasing after at least some of these progressive Royals that are being offered.

RecVPPlayer

good, respectful discussion; thanks to both correspondents. the M progressive -JOB at 25c- was over 2200 when i was banging away, but i couldnt get 4OAK. BUT it was only 7/5,not 8/5 (which I have knocked in NOLA long ago and this year at the riv) . I gotta believe the 20 large was about a dolla machine. I assume aint no sensible player with a 20 large bankroll going all in for 2200, or am i just the craziest of 'em all?