Video Poker

I always chuckle when someone gives me a story that goes like this.  "My mom goes to Vegas 3 times a year and comes home a winner every time. "

Nope.

My record in Vegas is about one out of every four trips I either break even or come home with a little more than I went out with.   The other three times it's coming home with less.  

 It definitely helps to learn to take advantage of promotions, coupons, slot club bonuses, point multipliers etc....that keeps the volatility a little tighter.   . win or lose I always earn enough comps for plenty of free play and food on my next trip.

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One of the reasons to disabuse people of the false concept of "luck" is that they'll use it as an excuse for playing carelessly or badly. "It doesn't matter--either you're lucky or you're not."

Luck is a psychological, emotional outcome / state. The math ( probability, EV, random outcomes, variance, standard deviation, volatility, all that gobbledygook ) doesn't lie over what gamblers refer to as the long run ( a big sample size for those of you from Tishomingo). Absolutely, some gamblers can experience random outcomes ( or a series/ history of positive EV outcomes) that lands them a standard deviation or two above normal expectations ( eg hit a single or series of sizable wins). It's still a product of random outcomes and overall probability, and some of those same gambler outcomes can be way over on the left side of the Belle curve (consistent or large losses).  Semantically and mentally, humans want  and like to feel "lucky", and the casinos have had a lot of success in marketing the entire concept of "luck". I guess gamblers can call it what they choose to as long as they respect the underlying numbers as the driving force. Calling it luck isn't Armageddonish...just a word... but it really doesn't have much to do with the real price of turnips. 

You needn't disabuse me kevin. I freely admit that I don't play perfect strategy, have played carelessly and badly on some hands. I have far more winning sessions than losing despite my drinking and somewhat dubious play. That is exactly why I believe I'm lucky.

I consider myself a recreational advantage player ( I know intermediate strategy for 9/6 JoB) and drinking a comped beer I like is paramount to enjoying myself in a casino. My hosts at both the Aquarius and AZ Charlies Decatur bring in Sam Adams Boston Lager for me to enjoy while I play. My wife uttered the words, "You're luckier when you drink", many many years ago.

I started going to Las Vegas for the cheap beer, food and really good free entertainment. I wasn't then nor am I now a "gambler". Over the years the beers and food have gotten to be no bargain and the really good free entertainment is almost nonexistent. Without the comped beers I wouldn't play a dime. As long as we get free rooms, some free meals and free play, we'll continue to go. Call us jaded, but we won't ever go if we have to pay for a room, especially with a resort fee or paid parking.

We both have the same hosts but my wife gets far better mailers than me (a lot more free play). She plays without strategy and pays extra coin in for most of the games she enjoys. She loses far more often than she wins. She once went seven years without a royal. My winning has been able to supplement her losing over the 35 years we've been going to Las Vegas and Laughlin. We're a team and split our royals or other big jackpots. She once got dealt four deuces with the kicker on a fifty play machine. She was playing triple double bonus all in with pennies. With a very few exceptions, I've been able to give her more money when she goes belly up. Like I've said many times, I'm lucky and have been since we got married.

Charles, all video poker playes experience random outcomes on every push of the deal or max play buttons. Luck is when you have more good results than bad. More royals than the math says.

Luck is when you have more good results than bad.  Very true.  Everyone has luck from time to time, maybe everyone is sometimes lucky.  The math supports the notion that luck is a state, not a trait; i.e., past results are cut in stone, future results aren't predictable.  PackerBacker, wishing you a long tenure on the good tail of the bell curve, but one never knows.  Keeping records will give you a more accurate picture.

Maybe I can state the reality of it all this way: "I have been lucky" is a rational statement. "I am lucky" is a nonsensical one.

Saying I am lucky is nonsensical is simply what you believe to be reality. Since there is no actual proof (reality if you will) that luck does or doesn't exist, your reality is as nonsensical as mine. My reality is believing in my personal results over 35 years as being lucky. Therefore, I am a lucky person. Will I continue to be a lucky person? I don't know and won't know for several sessions. Luck is quantifiable only through past results that are better or worse than the average would allow. My results over the long term of 35 years is proof that playing less than perfectly can yield positive results. Winning more money than losing at a random game over that length of time is my definition of luck(y)

People want to infer that selective memory is at play. To them I say this: while I do not keep records, I do maintain a gambling account. Just like when we had a Christmas account or an account for our daughter's first car, we started banking the money we came home with. We started going to Las Vegas with a $60.00 gambling stake. We did lose that piddling amount. However, over the 35 years we've managed to accrue a tidy gambling fund. Most of that, as my wife will attest, has been through me winning far more often than I've lost. There is nothing selective about growing a gambling fund from bringing home more money than you took.

I choose to regard something for which no proof of its existence is extant as not real. God, for instance. Fairies. The Force. Jewish space lasers. And yes, luck.

I can certainly think otherwise--and certainly, many, even most people do. I, however, realize that we disable our bullshit filters whenever something would please us if it was real. So, I ask myself, am I inclined to believe this because I have evidence that it's real, or because I'd like it to be real?

And because keeping that bullshit filter in place is often disappointing/unsatisfying, we often choose to "believe" rather than rejecting our fun beliefs. One way we disable that filter is to exalt simple observation or conjecture to the level of evidence--as you have. You constructed a tautology: I've been lucky, therefore luck exists. But your personal results don't argue for the existence of luck--they argue for the existence of mathematics.

It's very much like the God argument. Me: There is no evidence for the existence of God. Friend: Well, what about chickens, HUH??? How could there be chickens if there was no God??? Me: Check, please!

Not something you can logically talk someone out of. Stay "lucky."

Thanks Kevin and may the deuces and royals be with you.

Rich