VP Math Question

Barb is playing a daily promo at a local casino in LV. The promo requires $10K coin in to maximize. The best game in dollars is 9/6 JoB single line. Daily, she's playing 2,000 hands.

She has played this over the last three days and only has one (1) 4 OAK in a total of 6,000 hands.

If I recall correctly, the statistical norm is a 4 OAK every 480 hands or so. We're both interested in knowing how unlikely it is to get 1 4 OAK in 6,000 hands playing 9/6 JoB?

Thanks,

Dan

Duh....what was that question again?

How unlikely? ....Or...how "unlucky"????

I would answer VERY to either!!! That's a major downswing!!!

Yuck! I'm surprised Barb has hung in there for 3 days!

Hopefully the royals far exceed the 4 oaks....Good luck Barb!

This has been bothering me so I've been messing around with VPFW (instead of sleeping for an early morning flight that I have to be up in 6 hours for).

First off, the 4 OAK frequency should be one in every 423 hands or just over 14 in 6,000 hands.

According to VPFW, the chances of getting 0 in 6,000 hands is 0% to the 4th decimal point.....pretty close to impossible.

The chances of getting just 1 in 6,000 hands is .001%. I'm thinking that with this type of "luck", we should be playing the lottery or Megabucks.

The chances of getting 2 or more 4 OAKS in 6,000 hands is 99.99894%.

Not being a conspiracy theorist I nonetheless have to ask the question as to at what point does one believe a machine to be gaffed?

I know 6,000 hands isn't representative of the "long term" by any stretch but this is as bad a losing streak on this type of game that she can ever recall. Unfortunately, there were no RF's to compensate for this either.

For giggles, I plugged in 8,000 hands and it's virtually statistically impossible to have 1 or less 4 OAKS. More to the point, the likelihood of having 2+ is 99.99999%. So, maybe the solution is that we have to play more?

In my heart I know that this will all even out over the next 20-30 sessions but it's hard to swallow when you're that far on the wrong side of the curve.

Dan

At one of the down town Boyd casinos, I was hardly getting 4OAK. On my final 4 night visit, I did not receive any and decided to swap to their other casino. I have been averaging about 15 per visit.

So back to the the question. I say it is highly unlikely. So, what could be the problem? It now enters my mind that although the pay off tables cannot be changed, maybe there is a way to control the number of payoffs. Is this illegal?

Hi Dan,

Sorry that I can't help you much here, but all I can say is "Wow, I'm sorry that this has happened to Barb!"

I do have to say though that I know that in Video Poker, that anything can happen at anytime and so I can't say that it completely surprises me that there has only been one 4OAK in 6,000 hands because that 1 in 423 hands average of it happening is "on average" over quite a while and so having one 4OAK in 6,000 hands I have to say is not absolutely positively impossible to happen (although I would say that there is only a minute chance of such an event happening -- since you say that there is a 1/1000th of a percent chance of this happening).

But also, since there is a minute chance of this occurrance happening, it is also possible that it could happen again in your lifetimes (although I certainly don't wish that on either of you)!

Again, sorry to see this happen to you and Barb!

RecVPPlayer

If you want to follow up on this, there are a couple of things you can do:

1) Visit the almighty Wizard of Odds at wizardofodds.com. There should be a contact link somewhere. Tell him her story. He can probably tell you (a) whether her sample size and results indicates or hints at something wrong with the machine, and (b) how likely her streak is in a lifetime of, say, 1 million, 10 million, or 100 million hands.

2) If she has or can develop documentation (where, when, which machine(s), etc.), then she can turn in her info to the Gaming Commission, and let them take it from there.

Off subject a bit but:
I doubt I was close to that level but I had a hugh no 4OAK run several years ago. The interesting thing about it was I got dealt 3OAK to draw to way more than I had ever seen before or since.

Got a few good options here Dan.

As for me? I would NOT play that machine (those machines?). Anymore. I don't care the promo.
Has she had Luck on it in the past? Why stick with That one? (those)?
Phooey on 'em! Which casino? Where's the STP? ULT X?

Hey Dan,

As I'm reading through your post again, I'm wondering if this is happening on one specific machine? Maybe there could be a problem with the way that the specific machine was programmed.

If that's actually the case, who knows necessarily whether or not the casino knows about this happening?!

RecVPPlayer

Dan, not sure if this helps you, but on two occasions last year I played 4000 hands with no quads, and 8000 hands with only 1. It's pretty rare but it does happen. One of the the 8000 hand days I had 3 STFL as well, but only 1 quad.

Oh and it sucks, sucks, sucks, sucks.