Originally posted by: Brent Kline
So if this is the case, and over time the odds are what they are. If you are playing bonus for hours and have not hit quad aces, or 2s for example. Would it be wise to switch to DDB or DW thinking that since those high hands have not hit on that machine, that they are due to come up
It's too short a duration to make a difference; you have to think in millions and billions of hands.
To give you a real-life example, I came across a promotion at my local casino that had full-pay Bonus Poker that gave me a theoretical positive return, an advantage play. My wife and I play every week on the promotion day, and I keep a spreadsheet of my wins, losses, free play amount, comps, and number of hands I've played.
This started on March 4th, 2023, playing every week, I hit the first royal on March 31st, 2024, almost 13 months. I played 112,184 hands in that time; on average, I should hit a Royal every 40,233 hands. On average, I should have had almost 3 royals. In the same time frame, with about the same play, my wife hit 5 royals.
Even 112,184 hands doesn't start to even out the averages; you need millions of hands. By the end of 2025, I've played 278,934 hands, hit 4 royals, but the average says I should have had almost 7 royals. I'm still waiting for the averages to reward me.
In the LVA interview with Bob Dancer, Bob said that he has times he's under royaled and times that he's over royaled. I think that's a great way to look at it.
The casino downgraded the paytables on the Bonus Poker, making them unprofitable, but I found some DDB machines that aren't quite as good, but I can still have an advantage. In an hour and a half of play, I hit 7 quads with 2 small quads w/ a kicker. The average says I should have had 3. The switch has been profitable for me in the short run, but my wife is getting killed.
I posted my results in the Sink last January for 2024. I thought about doing it again this year, but there didn't seem to be much interest in it last year.