VP payouts ?

Originally posted by: Brent Kline

So there is no program for VP.  Just the RNG that brings up the cards and the paytables.  What about keno?  Is it just a RNG with 80 numbers and no program as well 


An RNG has no program, by definition. Otherwise, it wouldn't be random. That's why the proper term is pseudo-RNG.

 

There has to be a determined, as opposed to random, starting point for the RNG. But that can be generated in a fashion that is random for all intents and purposes.

 

Keno pseudo-RNGs work the exact same way as VP pseudo-RNGs. I believe that the flaw exploited by the APs I mentioned above was that they were able to figure out the starting point: the first number drawn, based on how the prior game had ended. Not sure, as the casino where it happened didn't provide details and threw the employees responsible into a wood chipper.

Originally posted by: Mark Anderson

I would think there has to be some change between games, as all games do not use the same deck i.e. Joker Poker.


I'd assume it's the same RNG just configured for the Joker when that game is selected on a multi-machine. I don't have any direct knowledge on that, just an educated guess.

Originally posted by: Brent Kline

So if this is the case, and over time the odds are what they are.  If you are playing bonus for hours and have not hit  quad aces, or 2s for example. Would it be wise to switch to DDB or DW thinking that since those high hands have not hit on that machine, that they are due to come up 


It's too short a duration to make a difference; you have to think in millions and billions of hands.

 

To give you a real-life example, I came across a promotion at my local casino that had full-pay Bonus Poker that gave me a theoretical positive return, an advantage play. My wife and I play every week on the promotion day, and I keep a spreadsheet of my wins, losses, free play amount, comps, and number of hands I've played.

 

This started on March 4th, 2023, playing every week, I hit the first royal on March 31st, 2024, almost 13 months. I played 112,184 hands in that time; on average, I should hit a Royal every 40,233 hands. On average, I should have had almost 3 royals. In the same time frame, with about the same play, my wife hit 5 royals.

 

Even 112,184 hands doesn't start to even out the averages; you need millions of hands. By the end of 2025, I've played 278,934 hands, hit 4 royals, but the average says I should have had almost 7 royals. I'm still waiting for the averages to reward me. 

 

In the LVA interview with Bob Dancer, Bob said that he has times he's under royaled and times that he's over royaled. I think that's a great way to look at it.

 

The casino downgraded the paytables on the Bonus Poker, making them unprofitable, but I found some DDB machines that aren't quite as good, but I can still have an advantage. In an hour and a half of play, I hit 7 quads with 2 small quads w/ a kicker. The average says I should have had 3. The switch has been profitable for me in the short run, but my wife is getting killed.

 

I posted my results in the Sink last January for 2024. I thought about doing it again this year, but there didn't seem to be much interest in it last year.

 

 

Originally posted by: Brent Kline

So there is no program for VP.  Just the RNG that brings up the cards and the paytables.  What about keno?  Is it just a RNG with 80 numbers and no program as well 


The paytables would be calculated by a program, the RNG is just always cycling through numbers until someone pushes the button, then it spits out 5 cards. It keeps cycling through numbers while you choose what to keep, and when you push the button again, it spits out the number of cards that you want.

 

 


Thanks Max and I do enjoy your results.  Some of this discussion came about from an article on roullete machines, where players were seeing patterns and they had to come up with programs  to defeat these players.  I would asume that video or machanical roullete would have the same simple 38 number  RNG as VP and Keno and there would be no need for a program

Originally posted by: MaxFlavor

It's too short a duration to make a difference; you have to think in millions and billions of hands.

 

To give you a real-life example, I came across a promotion at my local casino that had full-pay Bonus Poker that gave me a theoretical positive return, an advantage play. My wife and I play every week on the promotion day, and I keep a spreadsheet of my wins, losses, free play amount, comps, and number of hands I've played.

 

This started on March 4th, 2023, playing every week, I hit the first royal on March 31st, 2024, almost 13 months. I played 112,184 hands in that time; on average, I should hit a Royal every 40,233 hands. On average, I should have had almost 3 royals. In the same time frame, with about the same play, my wife hit 5 royals.

 

Even 112,184 hands doesn't start to even out the averages; you need millions of hands. By the end of 2025, I've played 278,934 hands, hit 4 royals, but the average says I should have had almost 7 royals. I'm still waiting for the averages to reward me. 

 

In the LVA interview with Bob Dancer, Bob said that he has times he's under royaled and times that he's over royaled. I think that's a great way to look at it.

 

The casino downgraded the paytables on the Bonus Poker, making them unprofitable, but I found some DDB machines that aren't quite as good, but I can still have an advantage. In an hour and a half of play, I hit 7 quads with 2 small quads w/ a kicker. The average says I should have had 3. The switch has been profitable for me in the short run, but my wife is getting killed.

 

I posted my results in the Sink last January for 2024. I thought about doing it again this year, but there didn't seem to be much interest in it last year.

 

 


Well, your results alone, without your saying where you played, aren't really of much interest other than the mathematical questions you alluded to...and most people regard math the way kids regard broccoli.

 

In thinking about how unusual an over- or under- this or that is, I really didn't know, other than subjectively, until I learned how to calculate standard deviations and express them in terms of probability percentages. Turns out a lot of unlikely events aren't as unlikely as you might think, while others are even rarer than intuition would suggest.

Originally posted by: Brent Kline

Thanks Max and I do enjoy your results.  Some of this discussion came about from an article on roullete machines, where players were seeing patterns and they had to come up with programs  to defeat these players.  I would asume that video or machanical roullete would have the same simple 38 number  RNG as VP and Keno and there would be no need for a program


I read that article as well, It was the electronic table game that has a real wheel in the middle that spins a real ball. When the wheel is not balanced, you can get an advantage. My understanding is that they have software that can detect that, and they can correct the wheel.

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