Because we are Caesars Diamond because of a credit card deal, we get $40 in sportsbook freeplay every month when we otherwise bet $200 during the month. What is my EV? And assuming we bet on the majors, NFL, MLB, NBA, NFL, what is my best bet typically?
TIA Kevin.
A lot of pro bettors would tell you to make a very high variance bet. But if you're just looking to maximize EV, I'd use it to try to find a middle in pro football player props. In stats like passing yards you can always find moderate-sized middles between sportsbooks. Occasionally you'll stumble upon a 40-yard middle on rushing or receiving yards for a particular player. One caution: make sure the player is expected to start.
Originally posted by: MisterPicture
Because we are Caesars Diamond because of a credit card deal, we get $40 in sportsbook freeplay every month when we otherwise bet $200 during the month. What is my EV? And assuming we bet on the majors, NFL, MLB, NBA, NFL, what is my best bet typically?
TIA Kevin.
A straight bet would have the lowest vig and therefore the highest EV. Regard the free bet like you would a "one play, win or lose" table games coupon ( not that there are many of those out there any more). It's worth slightly less than half of face value, since it will be worth $38.20 when you win and nothing when you lose.
I'm assuming that this is like every other free bet offered by online sportsbooks and not a $40 credit, which would of course be more valuable--youd get $80 if you win.
The notion that you should dump the free bet on some high-odds prop, like will Ignatz Podnozinsky rush for more than 400 yards, is fallacious. The free bet has a finite and quantifiable value. Much as when you bet $100, that bet magically turns into about $95.50, when you make a $40 free bet, it turns into $19.10 in real money. (In each case, prior to and regardless of the actual outcome.)
I would just "attach" the free bet to your next regular $200 bet, as in, bet on the same game, same side. The -EV on the $200 bet is $9, so you're freerolling.
Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis
A straight bet would have the lowest vig and therefore the highest EV. Regard the free bet like you would a "one play, win or lose" table games coupon ( not that there are many of those out there any more). It's worth slightly less than half of face value, since it will be worth $38.20 when you win and nothing when you lose.
I'm assuming that this is like every other free bet offered by online sportsbooks and not a $40 credit, which would of course be more valuable--youd get $80 if you win.
The notion that you should dump the free bet on some high-odds prop, like will Ignatz Podnozinsky rush for more than 400 yards, is fallacious. The free bet has a finite and quantifiable value. Much as when you bet $100, that bet magically turns into about $95.50, when you make a $40 free bet, it turns into $19.10 in real money. (In each case, prior to and regardless of the actual outcome.)
I would just "attach" the free bet to your next regular $200 bet, as in, bet on the same game, same side. The -EV on the $200 bet is $9, so you're freerolling.
Thank you, Kevin. So if I understand what you wrote, my EV on the original $200 is -9.00 and my EV on the $40 free bet is +$38.20 giving me an EV of $29.20 per month. Sound right?
