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Originally posted by: vantzy
As I have played BJ over the years, I am leaning towards letting the dealer beat me - so when I have a hard 15 or 16 I sometimes stay - even if he/she has a 7-A and there is no early surrender.
I am not sure why but I feel better losing this way than going over. Maybe it is age.
V
There are still a whole lot of ways that you can be beaten either by the Dealer's Down Card or by him/her still hitting and beating you in a whole lot of other ways when ending up with totals of 17 or more. And so with the card totals that you mentioned above, Hitting is a better option rather than Standing.
For example, with a Hard 15 Versus A Dealer's Up Card of 10, if the Player Hits, s/he has a 6 out of 13 chance (this is a 46.2% chance) of improving the hand. Now although that's not a good chance of improving the hand, the alternative is even worse. With a Dealer's Up Card of 10 Value (that's 10, Jack, Queen or King), first of all, the Dealer can either just turn over his/her Down Card and if it's a 7, 8. 9. 10, Jack, Queen, King or Ace (that's an 8 out of 13 chance -- which is about a 61.6% chance), s/he will immediately beat your total of 15 and immediately have a Standing total (and you would then lose).
But then, and second of all, if the Dealer ends up with a Down Card of 6 or Less, with that total, s/he could end up taking one or more cards and still end up beating you in a whole bunch of other ways by still ending up with totals of Hard 17 through 21 and still beat you anyway.
And so if Surrender is not an option and if you're not a Card Counter, then it is in your best interest as a Player to Hit in that instance.
RecVPPlayer