Making the line saved me some money. I had made large bets on "All Others" in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager", pools 2 & 3. I was in a position to either lose about $6K or win $15K, but Calif Chrome was one of the horses that would mean a $6K loss. Seeing that the parimutual odds of 5-2 were right at my own estimate of CA Chrome's chances, I was able to hedge with no EV cost.
Even better, at 5Dimes, with the 10% bonus on winning payoffs, I'd be getting 2.85-1, instead of 2.5-1. Too bad I only had $400 in my account. I bet it on CA Chrome, and bet another 1500 into the parimutuals. I was also able to hedge with a few other of the horses, which increased my overall exposure to about 8500, but the only way I could have lost that much was if Candy Boy or Intense Holiday had won.
I ended up about a $2K loser on the Derby, but that's way better than it would have been. Not having enough in my 5Dimes account cost me $525. (I was still on my 3rd $250-limit deposit with the new card I'm using there.)
Just to be clear, I would never have bet Calif Chrome to win solely because of that small difference in my own estimate of fair odds and what I'd be getting at 5Dimes. But I was willing to bet it as a risk-reducing hedge.
--Dunbar
(I hope this doesn't count as redboarding, since I'm reporting a net loss!)
