2 years ago today: A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model

Glad to see you're finally accepting your new reality.  You might as well vote R down ticket so you can get ahead of the wave and when things improve dramatically you can proudly say you voted for this!

I'm not sure what other improvements you're talking about. My expenses have come down over the last two years without the country going into a recession. The two things that I find stubbornly high are my homeowner's insurance and the property tax on my home. Of course, my home has increased 400% since I bought it, so there is a good side to that.

It just seems MAGA isn't very good at earning and managing money, here is an interesting article from Newsweek.

Map Shows States With Worst Credit Card Debt - Newsweek

"The top five states for worst credit card debt were as follows: Mississippi, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama and Texas."

So MAGA blames the government for their money problems and expects the government to fix it for them, odd.

This post hasn't aged well. Have you accepted your new reality that economic conditions have deteriorated dramatically because of Trump?  I hope you proudly tell everyone you encounter that has lost their job, their business and so on that you voted for this. 

It usually pays to look deeper than listening to top line numbers the media prefers.

In Q1, business investment in the Americas increased by 22%, with the industrial & logistics sector accounting for $36 billion of the total investment volume. The consumer discretionary, communication services, and financials sectors led the S&P 500® index in the fourth quarter of 2024.  - CBRE

What was expected was a report that was heavily skewed by trade data, as net exports were the sole reason for the decline in GDP.The key segment dragging down GDP growth in the first quarter was the net exports component. A large increase in imports (41.3% SAAR) in Q1 offset a smaller gain in exports (1.8% SAAR), which resulted in a -4.83 ppts contribution from net exports to headline GDP growth. Core GDP was up

Meanwhile

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 1.8% SAAR in the first quarter,

Fixed investment was another strong source of GDP growth, as it increased at a SAAR of 7.8% and contributed 1.34 ppts to top-line GDP growth. This included an increase at a SAAR of 9.8% in nonresidential investment as equipment investment surged, also likely related to companies pulling forward spending on machinery and tools ahead of tariff

The final piece of domestic demand is the government component, which contracted for the first time since Q2, 2022. Government consumption declined at a SAAR rate of -1.4,% with federal consumption down -5.1%

Stupid Tom's argument "strategy": leap onto the stats that appear to prove your point; ignore the ones that contradict it. If you like the "top line numbers," as he calls them, use them. If not, ignore them and "look deeper."

If stupid Tom could read, which he apparently can't, he could have discerned that this thread is about the doom predictions urinated all over the internet by Bloomberg and other "experts"--predictions that turned out to be about as wrong as the end of the world predicted for the year 2000.

Stupid Tom can spin it all he likes, but by the end of Biden's term, our economy was booming. Trump can claim that it wasn't booming until he took office, but even a child can recognize a Trump-lie or a Tom-lie when he hears it.

Consumption was outsized in Q1 as consumers rushed to buy things before the tariffs kicked in.

THat will  stop on a dime around Memorial Day when pre-tariff inventory runs out at most retailers.   Dont touch that dial !

Even so - GDP went down.      Our favorite city, Las Vegas is the best barometer of discretionary spending there is.    Airline tickets and hotel reservations are falling off a cliff.    They are already in recession.

Perhaps the silver lining is better deals in Vegas 6 months from now for those of us still employed.

Typical pj misstatements. 

Core PCE was 2.3 in q4 and 1.5 for q3 for an average of 1.9. Number look familiar?  Who was in charge last year?

Vegas is not falling off a cliff and attendance has been down since last August. Who was in charge last year. 

First - as usual you dont have a source so we know that means.

Second - you dont compare consecutive quarters.     You compare the quarter from the year earlier.   Otherwise you end up compairing Christmas shopping season (q4) to much slower spending in (q1).

And regardless of that - GDP was negative in Q1-2025  and a full 2 points lower than Q1-2024  of last year.

Thanks for stopping by !

Oh..and more to back up my point. 

Look what happened to airline bookings immediately after liberation day.   Tom says this is not accurate.   But Tom doesnt have anything to back up his post.    But he's really smart so take that into consideration.

source

Stupid Tom LUVVVS to cherry-pick stats, but as thick as he is, even he knows that CONSECUTIVE quarter stats can't be meaningfully compared, as the economy naturally waxes and wanes in any given year. The only valid comparison is year-over-year, as in Q1 2024 vs Q1 2025. Do that, and stupid Tom's argument droops like a used condom.