Bankruptcy, economic depression, pain and suffering

So many believe that when the shutdown of business ends, the economy will bounce back as if nothing happened.  That will not be the case due to the massive number of bankruptcies and poor profitability (loses).  Yesterday I spoke with a friend whose sister is the president of a major city’s convention center.  She said they will likely be filing for bankruptcy in short order.  Many airlines will be filling for bankruptcy.  Hotel chains, restaurants, auto dealerships, cruise lines, oil companies, and the list goes on.  Unemployment will skyrocket and spending will plummet; depression will ensue.  The only question is how deep and long the depression will last, and how many middle class and poor will be hurt.

Some interesting NY City data are available.  It's estimated that about 21% of all residents have had the beer virus.  With 16,300 deaths, the death rate seems to be slightly below 1%.  Many speculate that certain Americans are immune.

Let's get this economy going to minimize the economic pain for hundreds of millions of people.  The rich will be fine, but the middle class and poor are going to get hammered.

Death also inflicts economic suffering.

Businesses can be restarted. Human lives, once lost, cannot be recovered. Bankruptcy does not mean the permanent closure of a business; hell, sometimes it doesn't even mean its temporary closure.

I don't think this is a binary choice, though. We can use government aid to get individuals and small businesses through lockdowns that are literally vital in order to reduce the death toll.

Republicans have been against this from the start. They've had no problems with handing out trillions (!) to big corporations that have huge cash reserves and could easily weather even a prolonged slowdown.

We can get through this, WITH MINIMAL LOSS OF LIFE, if we just get the money to where it's really needed and keep it out of the hands of Republicans.

There's going to be some hard choices in the coming weeks.    Testing proliferation is not going to deploy nearly as quickly as was hoped.  

Here's some facts:   

1) We're not going to get a vaccine for at least a year

2) We're not going to have large scale testing until September

3) The government, general public, and businesses are not going to be ok with keeping the current lockdown for another 3 months.   Especially with the multi-trillion dollar price tag

My opinion is we should continue to lock down the people who are most vulnerable.   Everyone else should use masks, social distancing, and heightened sterilization of public areas.    Herd immunity will slowly develop with anecdotal, tragic fatalaties but at a slower rate that does not overwhelm intensive care access.

I think the general consensus amongst all of our institutions i(private and public) s that MAY is the last month of our current quarantine protocols regardless of our preparedness.   The economy is going to open in June.

I'm a Republican and I have a problem with the government giving money out to businesses.  I'm not arguing the short term benefits of doing this.  The problem is a national debt.  No free shit should be handed out.

Yes, the economy will open in June.  By November, I expect unemployment to be pushing past 15% and rising.

I've decided to edit this.  Trillions and trillions of more stimulus dollars could improve the short term economic situation, yet it will hurt our long term economic situation.

Kevin - what are an acceptable number of deaths in order to reopen?

Since 2015, New York has paid the federal government $115 billion more than they have received.

Since 2015, Kentucky has RECEIVED from the federal government $148 billion more than they paid.

When you think "deficit," think Kentucky and other red states that are usually on the receiving end of $$$.

No more red state bailouts!

We aren't ready to open the economy. We don't have a working testing regime and we don't have a contact tracing system in place. Elections do have consequences. 

This leaves us with the so-called herd immunity approach. 

How exactly would that work?

Would we isolate the medically vulnerable people in plastic bubbles so to speak? How would we get the medically vulnerable supplies such as food, medicine and other necessities while they are inside their bubbles?  We don't have a system in place for getting those people supplies.  Thinking beyond those medically vulnerable people isolating at home,  what do we do for those in nursing homes or other similar facilities? Do we move the entire staff inside the nursing home bubble for months at a time and not allow them to leave?  Do we isolate doctors, nurses and even the cleaning staff at hospitals because everyone there is medically vulnerable? 

Are we depending on the guy that hasn't been able to get working testing and has the scientific and medical understanding of a six-year-old to implement this scheme?

Mommy said, "Little Donny you still have a virus. You can't go outside and play today.  You don't want to make little Stormy sick when you play with her do you?"  

Litty Donny said, "But... but mom can't you just spray me with Lysol to get rid of my germs??

The latest reporting is we don't even know if getting the virus makes you immune to getting it again.  At this point heard immunity is simply a crackpot theory like eating fish tank cleaner, drinking bleach and injecting yourself with household disinfectants. 

 In this real-life hunger games you guys purpose, what do the tributes get besides death or lifelong organ damage? 

If you are bored, there are plenty of jobs out there. We need lots of nursing aides, hospital support staff, fast food workers, grocery store workers, warehouse workers, meat packers, prison guards, farm laborers and even higher paying assembly line workers. You can open your own personal economy right now if you want and nobody else has to sacrifice themselves for it.

Kentucky is largely rural and poor.  Liberals obviously don't care about these poor.  How about the Mississippi poor?  There are plenty of poor blacks in this state.  Nope, Liberals don't are about those poor.  Which poor does Mister care about and which does he not?

I suspect that if costs Mister money, he's not for helping the poor.

Every day we don't open the economy, the deeper the depression.  The deeper the depression, the more poor and middle income people who will be dramatically hurt.  More jobs will be lost.  More children without decent food and housing.  More deaths.