To get the garbage out of the way first: Vance will say he won the debate. Trump will say Vance won the debate ("the greatest debate performance in the history of American politics, except for mine, of course"), and Millerscum and his new mini-me, Aaron will say that Vance won the debate. Casting all that trash aside:
Vance was more smooth and polished than Walz.
Vance lied through his teeth; his statements repeatedly didn't stand up to fact checking.
Walz came off as sincere and a bit folksy, an image that his occasional minor stumbles actually reinforced.
Vance, in what had to be a move forced on him by his handlers, since it was so out of character for him, turned down the "rabid attack asshole" persona that he's recently deployed and managed to feign that he really gives a shit about his fellow Americans and is actually a nice guy.
I didn't buy Vance's "I'm a reasonable human being all of a sudden" approach. It looked and sounded phony to me, particularly when he danced away from tough questions about abortion and Jan. 6. Walz, in contrast, looked and sounded pretty authentic, and that included his tendency to misspeak at times, which he in fact acknowledged. Vance was defintely the better speaker--which was expected.
Will this move the needle any significant amount? There were no real surprises here, other than Vance toning down the shitslinging a little. He naturally blamed Harris for everything including Hurricane Helena, a MAGA tactic that I don't believe has worked all that well. Walz was as he's been portrayed--sincere and passionate, and "Minnesita nice" even if not the most polished public speaker, again, something he's ackowledged.
As far as who "won" the debate, I'm calling it a draw. Both candidates got their licks in, and both seized the opportunity to give America the chance to get to know them. Vance lied repeatedly a la Trump, but wasn't called out on it nearly as much as Trump was (which was probably deliberate). But we all expected that, as he couldn't really defend Trump's actions without lying. Vance also beat the anti-immigrant drum, I thought, a little too loudly, but again, that was expected.
My overall impression is that it was NORMAL. It was basically civil and not dominated by the ravings and tantrums of an unhinged old man wearing a diaper. It showed what life without Trump could be like--and may that be soon!