Economic variables

The initial question is, was there a problem to be solved in the first place? Other than Trump getting butt-hurt at other world leaders refusing to kiss his pinky ring, what was/is wrong with the US economy, to justify all these massive disruptions?

In a Victory for Autoworkers, Auto Tariffs Mark the Beginning of the End of NAFTA and the “Free Trade” Disaster - UAW | United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America

"This afternoon, the Trump administration announced major tariffs on passenger cars and trucks entering the U.S. market, marking the beginning of the end of a thirty-plus year “free trade” disaster. This is a long-overdue shift away from a harmful economic framework that has devastated the working class and driven a race to the bottom across borders in the auto industry. It signals a return to policies that prioritize the workers who build this country—rather than the greed of ruthless corporations."

Oh look.  The UAW workers who used to be Democrats are praising the Trump tariffs.  Funny how Democrats are now the party of free trade and cheap foreign labor that loves 'the greed of ruthless corporations" and Republicans are the party of American working men and women.

They can feel however they want about it but it doesn't change how tarrifs work. I read an article last night that said the auto industry expects vehicle prices to rise by $3000-$10,000 depending on how much of the vehicle is manufactured in the US.  

If those folks think autos are going to continue to sell at the same rate with those price hikes and given the current consumer confidence rates, they must have found Elon's Ketermine stash.

Who wrote your 'article'?  A shill for the globalists maybe?  Did it account for a quick shift in manufacturing back to the US and a rise in real wages?  What if American manufactured vehicles only increase by 5% and foreign cars and trucks by 20%?  So maybe we buy fewer BMWs and more Caddys.  Unless, of course BMW builds more US plants.  Pay attention to the close to 3 trillion dollars of new investment pledged to on-shore production and reindustrialze the economy.  Certainly more to come.

Investment commitments in U.S. nears $3 trillion since Trump took office

But back to Tariffs, according to the UAW:

"With these tariffs, thousands of good-paying blue collar auto jobs could be brought back to working-class communities across the United States within a matter of months, simply by adding additional shifts or lines in a number of underutilized auto plants. Right now, thousands of autoworkers are laid off at Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis following recent decisions by auto executives to ship jobs to Mexico."

Those thousands of laid off autoworkers at Ford, GM and Stellantis weren't in the market for a new car anyway, were they?

It will take a minimum of 4 years for any foreign auto parts to be remanufactured in the US.    

I dont hate alot of the big picture of what Trump is doing with trade.    I think its good that he wants to bring manufacturing back to the US.     The instant tarriffs seem short sighted.  He says they are permanent but since when is "what he says" mean anything?  Maybe he will modify them to be phased in.   That would be a much smarter approach.

If he keeps them as is you are going to see alot of higher prices across the board on all cars.   Most car manufactured in the US use foreign parts....so even your Ford built in Detroit is going to go up several thousand dollars in price.    

And thats just autos.   He's doing it across the board for everything.   That means everything is more expensive unless you can start making it in the US tomorrow.     

Considering the public's number one issue last November was  high consumer prices.....what makes anyone think this is policy that will be embraced by those same voters?

The problem is domestic automobile manufacturers do not manufacture their autos entirely in the US and a lot of times these domestic manufacturers ship them across the border more than once in the manufacturing process. 

Take Ford's Maverick (Made in Mexico) with its $27k base price for example.  How many folks do you think will be willing to pay an additional $6,750 in new Trump taxes to own that vehicle? 

It is the same vehicle it was the day before it is just literally $6,750 more today.

Move the production to the USA you say.  That plant where the Maverick is built builds all the Mavericks and Bronco Sports for the North American and South American continents.

It would take 10+ years to build a plant that can churn out close to half a million vehicles.  What do you plan to do in the meantime for a vehicle? You better hope the one you are driving now holds up as new and used vehicle pricing will soar above pandemic era pricing. 

What is going to happen is most of these big manufacturing companies are simply going to conclude it is not worth the expense to build big new plants in the US over that timeline especially when the US leader changes his mind on tariffs several times a week.

You aren't going to sink billions into projects like that where there is no stablity and your cash flow has been cut off because you can no longer sell a lot of your models in the US because people won't pay the Trump taxes on the new automobiles. 

The safe bet and the highest expected value comes from simply sitting on their hands (keeping production where it is) and waiting for Trump to leave office in three and a half years (worst case) and hope he changes his mind before then when it all turns to shit. (best case). Either way it sure beats spending almost a trillion dollars to build a plant that size and then having to wait ten years for it to start producing anything. 

Its going to come down to what voices are loudest....the ones that want lower prices or the ones that want more jobs here at some point in the future.

I suspect it will be the former - which isnt entirely a good thing.    I would like to see more manufacturing brought back to the US.

My biggest concern long term is I think most of those jobs are going to be fully automated anyway.   You might end up employing more people to build the plants than to work at them.    But thats true for all employment of every kind.   

That is what people don't get.  Manufacturing has changed a lot since the 1990s. What we used to think of as the rank and file manufacturing employee has been replaced by robots.  That big factory in Hermosa Mexico that churns out close to half a million vehicles I mentioned has only 300 hourly manufacturing employees as most of them have been replaced by automation. It is incredibly foolish in 2025 to think there are all these high paying manufacturing jobs out there waiting to come home to the US. 

The average car and/or it's components crosses the US border EIGHT TIMES before completion. Under Trump Turd's mandate, it would be Trumpiffed at every stage.

It's all part of Trump's obsolete and idiotic isolationist mindset. He's so very, very fucking stupid...and uneducated.

We can have a dunce in the White House as long as he surrounds himself with decent advisors...like Ronny or Dubya. But the Turd is surrounded by drooling sycophants.