Hey PJ! Here is how you can win thousands at the sports book, risk-free.*

*ALMOST risk-free

They don't have instant messaging, so this is the only way I have of contacting you, PJ.

Right now you can make a pretty much 135% guaranteed return on thousands of dollars of sports bets, but only if you are located in Indiana (like you are) or in a few other states. Several online sportsbooks, including Caesars, Wynn, and MGM, are offering now a free bet in Indiana of up to $1,000 should you lose your first bet. And that works out to the aforementioned 135% positive EV.

But if you're are a coward like me, here is how you make it a guaranteed win. In the first round of betting, you bet on BOTH sides of the same game. Because of the vig, you'll lose about 7% of your total amount wagered. But on the second round, again betting BOTH sides of the same game, you'll have your guaranteed substantial win, because of the free bet.

Right now there are $6,000 worth of casino free bets for Indiana, which should net you at least $2000 in winnings. Risk-free.* These offers have been around for several months and I don't have a clue when they will end.

Important Caveats:

Read the terms and conditions for each casino. Things may have changed since I made this score in a couple of other states. Be careful out there.

If you do this with a friend, DON'T bet on opposite sides of the same game with the same casino. I know of a couple of guys who did, and when the casino saw the bets were made at the same time from the same IP address on the same game on opposite teams, they refused to grant the free bet. The Caesars terms and conditions are explicit about this no-no. Read them.

Don't bet on any games likely to tie, get rained-out, or otherwise get canceled.

You won't get this offer from any online casinos that you have already done business with. It's just for first-timers.

Between the time you make your bets and the time you collect, I suppose a casino could go out of business or declare bankruptcy. Other than that, or making stupid mistakes, I don't see any risk.

The really hard part of this whole thing, in my experience, is registering and depositing funds. The casinos are super-paranoid and super-careful about making sure you are in the state and that you are legit. Seriously, it may take you days to get all your funds accepted so you can make your first bets. Be patient. You can read about Bob Dancer's struggles with it here.

And here is where to begin: https://www.vegasinsider.com/sportsbooks/indiana/

Good luck. And Merry Christmas.

Actually, assuming that you're betting into a -110 line (as is the case with most football and basketball bets):

Your loss on your initial action would be a bit less than 5% of the total amount bet, because you'd bet 11+11 and get back 21. So, assuming you bet $1,000 on each side, you get back $1,909--a loss of $91 on the initial $2000.

Then, you combine your free $1000 bet with a cash bet of $1000 on the other side, and you will wind up with $1,909, whichever way it goes.

So, for an initial investment of $91, you get back $909 in profit. That's a lot more than 135%!

The initial bet in my example was $2,000, not $91. And yeah, my 135% EV was a little on the conservative side. Just like I said that the bets were *almost* risk-free. I don't want to over-promise.

So next time you're in Vegas, take a side trip to Laughlin. Over the bridge lies Arizona. Last time I checked they were offering similar deals.

Yes, your bet was $2000, but your investment was $91. That's because barring a push, you were certain to lose exactly $91. And that $91 would have earned a $1000 free bet.

However, I might have overstated the value of that free bet. Two possibilities: you get a $1000 free bet, you win, and are paid the winnings. Or: you get a $1000 free bet, you win, and are paid the bet itself plus the winnings.

Obviously, these are two different scenarios. In one case, your +EV is $454 (half of $909). In the other case, your EV is $954 (half of $1,909).

So my question is: exactly what is the free bet? How does it work?

Also: Dancer reported serious difficulties with funding his bets in Arizona. He was trying to absolutely milk it for every dime it was worth, and he admitted that he didn't plan it all very carefully, so maybe it ain't all that difficult.

Kevin, here is how the free bet works.

You bet $1000. You win. You get paid off normally. OR...

You bet $1000. You lose. You get to place another $1000 bet without coming up with any funds.

Free money.

Right, but, does "you get to place another bet" mean that if you win, you get that bet (in cash) plus whatever you won (also in cash), or do you only get the winnings?

In other words, if you make that $1000 "free bet" and win, do you get paid $1000 or $2000?

The nomenclature of "free bet" in other casino promotions suggests that you would get paid only the winnings, but I'm curious as to whether that's the case here. I suspect that's how it works.

Central to how viable this is is the question: is there any trouble with placing equal bets on both sides of the game, simultaneously or otherwise? Could that possibly invalidate the bonus? I realize that you could, of course, make the second bet in cash, without the app, or make it somewhere else altogether. Dancer apparently made a deal with other players (I was going to say "friends," but I don't think he has any that he would trust with something like this) to offset each others' bets.

If you place offsetting bets in two different places and/or at two different times, the lines had damn well better be the same.

Another element I'd be wary of is whether you would get the bonus if your bet pushed. To avoid that, I would only bet a game where the line was +/- X1/2, not a whole number.

So once again, the question is whether you are making $454 or $954.

I follow all this except the free bet part. 

1) Wouldn't your "winnings" be the $1,909 (less the $91 investment) so call it $1,818 if you happen to win the free bet?  Or are you saying bet both sides again the second time?  (Free bet plus another $1K bet)  

2) I'd be afraid of betting both sides both times.  Like you said, wouldn't it have to be done at two different casinos or sites at the exact same line?  

Condition 1. The free bet is treated just like any other bet. If you win the free bet, you get $1,909--the face value of that bet plus your $909 in winnings. If you offset that bet with a $1000 cash bet, your profit is $909. If you lose the free bet, you win $909 on your other, cash bet. Again, your profit is $909.

Condition 2. The free bet has no value in and of itself, but if you win, you get the amount of money a normal bet would have paid. If you win the free bet, you get paid $909. Therefore, if you wanted to lock in a sure profit, you would bet $480 on the opposite side--not $1000. That way, you end up ahead $429 (909-480) if the free bet wins and $436 (480 x 10/11) if it loses.

A $1000 free bet in Condition 1 is worth $909. A $1000 free bet in Condition 2 is worth $433. So it really matters.

Ordinarily, it might be difficult to ensure that you could get in two bets at different times or places and the lines would be the same--if you were betting on a specific game. But in this scenario, you could bet any game that was offered at both of the hypothetical books. Therefore, I would look for situations where the line is unlikely to move in the few hours it might take to place both bets. Both pro and college football lines are posted almost a week before the games, so there's a good-sized time window. The lines tend to move most when first posted and as game time approaches. Therefore, I would plan to make my bets in the middle of the week.

Also, games that are less "marquee matchups" tend to attract less action than the "headliner" games. So maybe, I'd pick some game between two NFL teams from smaller cities that are both something like 4-7 on the season. Midweek, there's very little chance that such a game would attract enough action to make the line move.

Obviously, all this would be MUCH easier if you could coordinate with a friend. I'd be very wary of making both bets myself in the initial bets that I'd be making to earn the free bet. I'd be a bit more confident the second time around (free bet + cash bet), but I'd still think it would be an obvious move that might attract scrutiny.

One final thought. Your best choice from an EV standpoint would be to simply make the free bet and sweat it out (in either Condition 1 or Condition 2). But I've always been willing to sacrifice a small amount of EV for a sure profit. It's the same philosophy I use when I've got a $25 matchplay, and I use it at the crap table to bet it + $25 on the pass line and $37 on the Don't Pass, and $1 on the 12. That way, I make $12 if the shooter passes, $11 if he doesn't, and $5 if he rolls a 12 on the comeout. I'd be slightly better off to just make a single bet with the matchplay and sweat it. But I hate to go to all that trouble for nothing.

Ok, got it!  Thanks.  

I agree, I would be a little nervous making both bets at same site but if you fund two different sites for $1K, it seems like it would be pretty easy to do without much scutiny barring all the other items you mentioned....lines moving, funding issues, etc.  My daughter is going to school in Iowa next year so I'll be going there quite a few times and might actually try this play.  

Last question - why do you think sites are doing this?  Do they just figure even if someone goes to the hassle to rig the system, they may just leave their "free profit" in there and keep betting?  I'm kind of leaning towards that.  Kind of like a "free play" offer in VP.  

Kevin - we may argue sometimes with political issues but I very much appreciate your gambing takes.  Have you noticed AZ Charlies Decatur at all?  How long do you think that lasts?  I was just in Vegas this last week and noticed it the day I was going to leave so I didn't bother with a drive over just because I figured it would be locked up.  

Oh, hell, yeah, I've noticed them. In fact, I stayed there twice in the last 30 days. I did very, very well. The only issue was that the local senior set sometimes clogged all the machines. When that happened, I just got in my car and went to Emerald Island or Four Queens, both of which had +1% promos every day. But if I waited until about 8 pm, there were always machines in that bank available. I scored about a 3% return on my action, much better than expectation. Makes up for all those times I've been pounded through the floor when the royal gods spurned me. (BTW, if you visit there and the bank is full, just duck into the cafe and have a $4 breakfast or a $5 burger and fries.)

I kind of doubt that those games have long to go, because a) the Boulder location removed 5 of their 8 good machines last month and b) the abovementioned pod of seniors plays the games very well--95% of that is FPDW (a little bit of FPJW mixed in). So AZC can't be making any significant money on those machines. I've hit them fairly hard lately because I expect them to be gone soon. Also, I enjoy FPJW, and that's the absolute last place on earth to play it (other than Boulder).

As to why the sports books companies are offering those bonuses, I think you essentially have it. People, given those bonuses, will bet them away gradually until they're gone--and hopefully, be hooked and lose more. I doubt that 1 player in 100 will grab the free bet, win it, and then walk away whistling, using the money to buy a new flat screen TV or something. This correlates with what a slot manager at Green Valley Ranch told me some years ago. At that time, they did very generous mailers with lots of free play. He told me that they recovered 95% or more of that free play, because people would almost always play it until it was gone. The only real exception, he said, was when someone hit something big--then they'd cash out and leave (for the time being, at least). That's why it was such an asinine move for locals' casinos to stop giving out free play. It got butts in the door and cost very little.

A further reason is that these companies are competing with one another as well as trying to be attractive to investors--perhaps, for example, going public if they're not at that stage already. And the more people who are signed up, the more attractive their company looks. Since no one can tell just how much Joe Sportsfan will eventually bet when he signs up for BetNet, success for these companies is measured by how many people they've managed to attract. And offering free bets is a pretty powerful tool to do that.

Look at it this way--if they weren't completely confident that people were going to eventually piss away their bonuses, wouldn't those bonuses be a LOT smaller?