It's the conventonal wisdom that the RepubliQ will take back the House and Senate in 2022 and the White House in 2024--after which, elections will be abolished altogether and the trains will run on time. I agree that this is the current trajectory. However, there are multiple signs that the RepubliQ will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
House: This cycle favors the RepubliQ. However, a number of wackadoodle conspiracy theorists and anti-abortion crusaders won/will win the GOP primaries. Thanks to the "Supreme" Court's recent decisions, a LOT of people--women especially--are VERY mad. This could make a lot of races competitive that weren't before. I still expect the fascists to seize the majority, but it's not the certainty it once was.
Senate: This cycle also favors the RepubliQ. However, as in the House, they've nominated a number of numbnuts and nimrods. (Herschel Walker, for example--what a meathead.) The effect has been to make three races that were solidly RepubliQ competitive. It's going to be close--a lot closer than some people think. I'm predicting that the Senate stays 50-50, albeit with some shuffling.
The national mood: Inflation will moderate as the economy cools down. The Ukraine war will reach some kind of muddled resolution. Climate change will make its way to the forefront of the national consciousness--oh so briefly--as we get another cycle of deadly heat waves and tropical storms. Abortion rights will be an ongoing hot issue. All these factors will favor the Democrats--how quickly it all happens will determine how the November elections go.
MAGAA--There's no way DeSantis is letting go of his ambitions to become Trump II, and there's no way that Trump I is going to allow that. So expect the nastiest primary contest in American history--even nastier than the Trump vs. everybody stuff in 2016. I expect DeSantis to win, if for no other reason than the loser of a Presidential election rarely gets nominated to run next time. Then Trump will storm away and start his own third party--Make America Great Again Again (MAGAA). He wouldn't have to peel away many votes from DeSantis to doom his chances--1% would do it easily.
If the RepubliQ moderated any of its extreme positions even slightly, dropped the Big Lie, and started talking actual policy instead of babbling conspiracy theories, they'd win, no question--if for no other reason than they've got the American people fooled into thinking they're better at running the economy (L O fucking L). But they won't. They're going to continue to alienate people who would otherwise have voted for them.
And MAGAA sounds like a mynah bird being strangled.
