Is Trump and his inner circle making money on his decisions? Sure, seems like it.

Lawmakers demand investigations into well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war | AP News

"In January, an anonymous Polymarket user made a $400,000 profit by betting that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be out of office, hours before Maduro was captured. In the hours before the start of the Iran war, another account made roughly $550,000 in a series of trades effectively betting that the U.S. would strike Iran and that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from office."

Definitely the sort of thing a career con man like Trump would do.

I think there's a lot more, um, arbitrage than that going on. Big Oil has made tens of billions from this war without lifting a finger. I suspect that they stuffed a few billion in Trump's diaper to get him to start it.