Originally posted by: PJ Stroh
Im not the one in the straight jacket crying about the Deep State boogeyman in the government. Thats you and the guy you voted for. Lets be clear - Trump isnt claiming incompetence - he's crying "rigged" like he did with the election. Charles sugar coating his words doesnt change that fact.
And I didnt cheer on DOGE to sabotage the government workforce only to cry about how that workfroce suddenly didnt perform as well. Thats your comical paradox based upon your chosen ideology. You have to sleep in the bed you shit in, Charles.
I dont really fault the BLS for getting the inital numbers wrong. The numbers are collected by surveys from companys about what they are doing with their workforce. I dont know if you were in a coma the last few months but our president farts out a new tariff and trade war on a daily basis. So maybe that caused some confusion in the private sector HR departments. Food for thought for people who dont believe in the government boogeymen who "rig" the numbers.
Let's be clear. I pointed out in my first post that the numbers were not 'rigged'. I pointed out how the Commissioner was incompetent and the required largest revisions in 50 years were an epic fail. And then publishing the massive revisions with no explanation was something I wouldn't expect from an economics intern. Of Course, the Trump deranged PJ won't address my arguments and admit that publishing such bad data was an extreme failure, but instead attacks President Trump...because Trump said it was rigged. I'm not Trump.
On the other hand, PJ claims these reports have worked for 50 years and there are always adjustments, ignoring the 2024 800,000 downward revision (remind me who was president then), the lack of accuracy for the last 3 years (remind me who was President then), and the 90% inaccuracy in the May and June Reports. And then out of the other side of his mouth, he blames the horrible reporting on Trump. Because Tariffs. Or maybe confusion in the private sector HR departments.or something else he can make up.
This isn't rocket science. We should be able to report employment numbers that are better than a coin flip. I offered three solutions that would be far better than reporting numbers that were so far removed from reality that no sane person will have any confidence in those initial reports in the future. We need someone smarter than the previous leader to actually fix the reporting system. Here were my suggestions in the meantime.
Report the initial number after 60 days if you can't get closer than 10% accuracy in 30.
Make the report Quarterly; at least the first two months will be more accurate.
Just use the ADP numbers. Those are real, but don't include the Government. You'd think the Government would know Government Payrolls.
Here's another one: there are statistical techniques that allow you to provide confidence percentages with your analysis based on standard deviations and sample size. If they ran that analysis on the May-June numbers, I think you'd find that those were published with very low confidence. Post the confidence level with the reported number.
Yet the liberals are content to go with the system that "has worked for 50 years". Hold no one accountable (except Trump) and just pump more money into the bureaucracy....This always works except when it doesn't.
