Originally posted by: PJ Stroh
Hey, Charles, did you see what your most favorite economist had to say about Trump and his economic policies? Somethings tells me you're about to find a reason to reject the economist you've cited on this board about 100 times in the past.
Larry Summers warns Trump polices will be more inflationary than anything Biden did.
Larry Summer's (and many other noted Economists) prediction on Bidenflation was relatively easy. All anyone had to do was look at aggregate demand improving at the time and see that the huge impact infusing trillions of extra dollars into the US economy would be inflationary.
While I agree that across the board tariffs can be inflationary claiming the actual new Trump policies will create inflation requires a little deeper look at all of the policies, not just a cherry picked few. So, maybe you can answer a few questions for me about Tariffs and Larry Summer's claims.
Did Trump's first term tariffs create inflation? If so, how much and why didn't Biden end them? (hint: those particular tariffs did not create inflation)
In Larry's analysis of Trump Tariffs, what percent did he assign to the threatened tariffs simply being used as leverage to negotiate better trade deals with our trading partners? You know the EU is already looking at cutting tariffs on US products to avert a trade war. That's a good thing, right?
In Larry's analysis of inflation did he consider the deflationary impact of cutting a trillion dollars of federal deficit spending (the root cause of true inflation).?
In Larry's analysis of inflation did he consider the deflationary impact of reversing Joe Biden's costly anti-business executive orders and cutting red tape and thousands of costly anti-business regulations imposed by the Biden administration?
In Larry's analysis of inflation did he account for the deflationary impact of the immediate layoff of several hundred thousand Federal government employees? How many of these employees did he predict would take actual productive jobs in private industry?
In Larry's tariff analysis, how much weight did he give to the impact of our trading partner's currency being devalued because of the tariff's.
In Larry's tariff analysis how much of the end cost did he predict would be absorbed by the trading partner (vs passed on to the consumer) so they don't lose market share?
In Larry's tariff analysis, how much weight did he give to the substitution effect where consumers find alternative products and suppliers for the tariffed goods?
So what is your prediction for the biggest percentage change this year in CPI? Are you like Kevin predicting 200 to 300% within 6 months? My gut feeling is that it won't be anywhere near as inflationary as Democrat pearl clutching indicates because each of the points above are potential moderating factors that likely aren't being considered.