Not sure what Trump is doing

Originally posted by: CharlesII

Oh little things like adding 8.3 trillion to the national debt.  This + the Fed's easy money policy was the root casue of our 40 year record inflation and decline in real wages.. That's kind of the definition of reckless spending.

 

Exactly Legislation like:

American Rescue Plan 1.9 trillion.

Infrastrucure and Jobs Act 1.2 trillion.

So called Inflation Reduction Act.1.2 trillion.

 

 

 

 


American Rescue Plan helped increase the inflation rate higher than it would have been without the bill, the Cares  Act was also a factor.

 

The inflation rate was 6.8% in November of 2021 when the Infrastructure Act was passed, it was at 2.9% in December 2024. I don't think building infrastructure is reckless, Trump sure talked a lot about it during his first term with the usual MAGA results, none.

 

By November of 2023, 80% of the funds were still left to be awarded. 

 

Brooking Institue:

 

"Formula and direct federal spending continue to move at a steady pace, already pumping $306 billion into state coffers and direct investment projects. And like an athlete who grows into a game, competitive grantmaking is steadily increasing, with 80% of all competitive funding still left to be awarded. Just as importantly, the Biden administration has shown no flagrant political bias in splitting awards among states—certainly welcome news to the bipartisan legislators who authored the bill."

 

The inflation rate was 8.3% in August of 2022 when the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, it was at 2.9% in December of 2024.

 

As the "reckless spending" began to work it's way into the economy the inflation rate fell, you're hypothesis doesn't hold up very well to a simple timeline.

Originally posted by: CharlesII

 

Fact of the matter is that even though Trump cut taxes, the Federal Government ended up with RECORD TAX RECEIPTS because of the growth that caused.  Far higher growth than predicted by the CBO.  Cutting tax rates doesn't necessarily lead to cutting revenue.  At least it didn't.  We don't have a taxing problem.  We have a spending problem.


It really isn't that simple.

 

Trump's Spin on Tax Cuts Raising Revenues - FactCheck.org

 

"“The problem, of course, is that more than the TCJA happened,” Hoopes said. “Congress dumped trillions of dollars into the economy in so-called COVID recovery, and that really helped corporate profits, and therefore, corporate tax revenue for the US Treasury. The question is not whether we did better or worse afterwards, but rather, how much the TCJA actually cost us. And, the answer is it likely cost us a lot. In other words, that sharply pointing up graph would have been even steeper. Some estimates are that the TCJA decreased corporate tax revenue by something like 40%.”"

Originally posted by: CharlesII

Of course I was just pointing out Biden's reckless spending. with over 4 trillion in new spending that created record deficits and our record inflation and declining real wages.  If Democrats were really concerned about the deficit,and they thought the Trump tax cuts were to blame, they could have easily reversed Trumps tax cuts.  The Democrats simply don't care about government waste or fraud or deficits.  Witness them 'throwing gold bricks off the the Titanic' on their way out of power.

 

Fact of the matter is that even though Trump cut taxes, the Federal Government ended up with RECORD TAX RECEIPTS because of the growth that caused.  Far higher growth than predicted by the CBO.  Cutting tax rates doesn't necessarily lead to cutting revenue.  At least it didn't.  We don't have a taxing problem.  We have a spending problem.


Those RECORD TAX RECEIPTS happened every year since WWII. That's because the working population was at RECORD NUMBERS every successive year. Don't be a moron. There is NO evidence of "the growth that it caused."

 

Just FYI: the Trump tax cuts cost the federal government $1.9 trillion in the first year alone. So you're right. They didn't cost any money. Except for that $1.9 trillion. And about that amount every year since.

 

If you had any knowledge of the topic, you'd be aware that all those corporate tax savings went into stock buybacks. No investment in the economy. No expansion of those businessess. No additional hiring. Just fattening up the stockholders and feathering the CEO nests.

Charles is pretty smart.  That's all I'm going to say on the topic here.  


Originally posted by: Jerry Ice 33

Charles is pretty smart.  That's all I'm going to say on the topic here.  


You agree with him ideologically and temperamentally. You're also both loyal Trumpers. I have no doubt that that makes him "smart" in your eyes. His arguments, though, have holes you could drive a truck through.

Originally posted by: CharlesII

Seems like the play here is picking value stocks with reasonable PEs and a good history of dividend increases.

 


You might invest like Warren but I don't think he shares your enthusiasm for the current administration.

 

Market Watch Feb 22, 2025:

 

"Or that in his latest annual letter to investors, the 94-year-old has taken a break from his usual patriotic boosterism, and instead is warning about the risks to America from “fiscal folly” and from “scoundrels and promoters” who “take advantage of those who mistakenly trust them.”

 

“The American process has not always been pretty,” he wrote.

It’s a far cry from his usual cheerleading.

 

It’s only four years since he was writing: “Never bet against America.”"

 

Yikes! He was bullish on the US when Biden came into office, he must not watch Hannity.

 

 

Originally posted by: CharlesII

I see. No PJ inflation prediction.  No response to the moderating factors I identifed.  As to the credibility of Larry Summers inflation prediction for Biden vs current prediction vs Trump, You'll note that Summer's analysis of Trump policies was from November of last year well before any of these policies were really defined.  Many are still being refined like the Reciprocal Tariffs.  His prediction on Bidenflation was based on the specific legislation (The American Rescue Act) that was proposed and implemented and the catalyst for our 9.2% inflation rate a year later.  

 

US Inflation was not in line with the rest of the globe.  Some countries made the same mistakes the Biden administration did, big stimulus + loose money.  Only we did it at great scale.  We peaked at 9.2%.  At that time, China was at 2.6%.  Japan at 2.4.  France 5.8. India 6.1 Germany 7.6.   Because of those Biden inflationary policies, the Fed had to act by raising interest rates and we stil never once hit the Fed target inflation rate during the horrible 4 years of Democrat rule. 

 

Unfortunately we have spent our way into a debt crisis and the only way out is to cut the Government fat and wasteful spending, still find ways to stimulate growth through tax policy and cutting red tape and maybe get a peace dividend from ending the Ukraine war.  I'm sure even democrats hope Trump is successful at that. 


And it was all over within a year.   Any country that did better with inflation did much worse with GDP growth and unemployment.   By all accounts the US came out of the pandemic inflation crisis better than the rest of the globe.   Even your favored economist agrees.   

 

And I dont make predictions.   Anyone who claims they know the future is full of shit.   What I am good at is looking at the past and seeing what caused it as acknowledged by experts.     Biden's inflation was caused by the same factor that caused Trump's unemployment.    Thats why it ended as soon as the supply chain issues went away.  If it was monetary policy it would have taken years and an economic recession to recover....like in the 1980's.       

 

But its hard to argue with hypocrites like you who say "everything bad that happens is the president's fault" when a Democrat is in office....and then look for actual cause and effecrt when the MAGA retard you vote for is in office.    According to evonomic expert, Charles, checks sent out by Biden caused inflation....but the checks sent out by Trump didnt.  And if that position doesnt lower your IQ by a point or two you probably ignored it.   And good for anyone who does.

What all our MAGAs conveniently ignore is that the peak inflation of 9.2% was temporary, and it subsided to 2.9%...so they focus on the former, the worst part, and ignore the latter, the best part. We must admit, though, their constant bleating did work. The public blamed Biden for it going up and gave him no credit for it going down. Angry Charles is nothing but a parrot.

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