Poll: Trump leads Biden by nearly 10% nationally

Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis

You probably don't even realize the "thin ice" you're on yourself. Anthony is on the verge of chucking you into the trash can.

 

We won't miss you.


   So you say. As of this moment, I have received no notice of what you claim from Anthony - and, as all here know, YOU are and have been the main abuser and have been repeatedly banned for your past behavior here in the Sink and in the Forums. Speaking for myself, and probably for many, many others, your last banning was a delightfully pleasant time here as the Sink was temporally "cleaned up", respectable, and fit for even a child to peruse because of the loss of the filthy language you constantly engage in and spew. You definitely were not missed and won't be missed the next time you are banned - hopefully forever.

Originally posted by: David Miller

   So you say. As of this moment, I have received no notice of what you claim from Anthony - and, as all here know, YOU are and have been the main abuser and have been repeatedly banned for your past behavior here in the Sink and in the Forums. Speaking for myself, and probably for many, many others, your last banning was a delightfully pleasant time here as the Sink was temporally "cleaned up", respectable, and fit for even a child to peruse because of the loss of the filthy language you constantly engage in and spew. You definitely were not missed and won't be missed the next time you are banned - hopefully forever.


Nobody actually got suspended from this forum, did they?  You have to get pretty low in the weeds for that to happen I'd think.  

Originally posted by: Jerry Ice 33

Nobody actually got suspended from this forum, did they?  You have to get pretty low in the weeds for that to happen I'd think.  


    A suspension is a possibility for anyone who gets barred multiple times. 

Originally posted by: Edso

I looked at 538 and according to their averages as of today, Biden is 2 tenths ahead of Trump.  40.7 to 40.5.  It is neck and neck. Not sure where the 10% comes from....at least not on poll average. 


I tried to look at the crosstabs from the survey but the results are behind a paywall.  The attached article from The Western Journal (paragraph 5)  indicates that Rasmussen doesn't provide a ful explanation of its methodology, making it dificult to evaluate how accurate its polling might be.  Since Rasmussen uses automated survey, federal law only allows them to be completed on landlines.  This would be a stratified sample since only 27% of homes still have a landline.  Outliers can be handled in different ways.  When my partner and I did the IRS study on using a credit card to pay taxes, we asked respondents who owed taxes the approximate amount they paid by April 15th.  Almost all paid between $200-$2000.  Two respondents owed over $100,000.  This dramatically skewed the mean.  We supplied tables with and without the outliers for their information.  Take care.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rasmussen-poll-shows-trump-soaring-past-biden-now-holds-a-10-lead-in-head-to-head-match/ar-BB1lTVk1

https://potsandpansbyccg.com/2023/08/16/who-still-has-landlines/


Originally posted by: Jerry Ice 33

Nobody actually got suspended from this forum, did they?  You have to get pretty low in the weeds for that to happen I'd think.  


I've talked to Anthony multiple times, and he is indeed on the brink of suspension. The only thing saving him so far is that the people he attacks, insults, and derides don't come crying to Anthony every time, like he does.

Originally posted by: Robert Davis

I tried to look at the crosstabs from the survey but the results are behind a paywall.  The attached article from The Western Journal (paragraph 5)  indicates that Rasmussen doesn't provide a ful explanation of its methodology, making it dificult to evaluate how accurate its polling might be.  Since Rasmussen uses automated survey, federal law only allows them to be completed on landlines.  This would be a stratified sample since only 27% of homes still have a landline.  Outliers can be handled in different ways.  When my partner and I did the IRS study on using a credit card to pay taxes, we asked respondents who owed taxes the approximate amount they paid by April 15th.  Almost all paid between $200-$2000.  Two respondents owed over $100,000.  This dramatically skewed the mean.  We supplied tables with and without the outliers for their information.  Take care.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rasmussen-poll-shows-trump-soaring-past-biden-now-holds-a-10-lead-in-head-to-head-match/ar-BB1lTVk1

https://potsandpansbyccg.com/2023/08/16/who-still-has-landlines/


Anyone with a basic knowledge of statistics knows that outliers should be disregarded. Rasmussen is and has been an outlier. Of course, when you fold in Rasmussen's "Trump is leading by 800 percent!!!!", it skews the average. 

 

One can measure the effect of erroneously including an outlier by comparing the averages with and without it. In this case, the faulty inclusion of Rasmussen in the aggregate skewed the average (as well as the mean)) by well over one percent.

Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis

I've talked to Anthony multiple times, and he is indeed on the brink of suspension. The only thing saving him so far is that the people he attacks, insults, and derides don't come crying to Anthony every time, like he does.


   You say that the only thing saving him so far is that the people he attacks, insults, and derides don't come crying to Anthony - that is a strange comment coming from one who talks to Anthony multiple times and seems to have this knowledge about who may be suspended. 

Originally posted by: David Miller

   You say that the only thing saving him so far is that the people he attacks, insults, and derides don't come crying to Anthony - that is a strange comment coming from one who talks to Anthony multiple times and seems to have this knowledge about who may be suspended. 


Anthony specifically said that the only thing saving you is that few people complain to him about your awful behavior. Ask him, if he'll bother to talk to you.

Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis

Anthony specifically said that the only thing saving you is that few people complain to him about your awful behavior. Ask him, if he'll bother to talk to you.


  The number of people who may complain about me is like the tip of an iceberg compared to the number of people who have posted and complained to Anthony about you. Makes one wonder how you are privy to this information concerning me - could it be because you have whined to Anthony about me - or is this just another made up story you have concocted in an effort to make me look as bad as you do? 

While head to head polls have some importance; the 5 way polls are more relevant as that will be choice the voters will have.  Trump leads the 5 way by 2 points.

 

Even more important are the battleground states.  There Trump has good leads in NC, Az, Ne2, Ga & Nv.  Trump has strong leads in other states for 219 electoral votes.  Add those states in Trump has 269.  He only has to win 1 of the battleground states of Mn, Mi, Pa, Wi & Va

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