Nate Silver’s model gives Trump a 63.8% probability of victory against Kamala Harris. Trump's chances have increased nearly 5 points since Thursday, with a rise from 58.2%. A new poll shows Trump favored in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona.-Election analyst Nate Silver has sharply raised Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election, giving him a 63.8% probability of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. This uptick comes in the wake of a New York Times/Sienna poll released Sunday, which Silver cites as highly reliable. The poll, along with other indicators, prompted Silver to increase Trump's odds from 58.2% just days earlier. Silver’s model now shows Trump with a strong advantage in several crucial swing states. Trump is given a 64% chance of winning Pennsylvania, 54% for Michigan, and 53% for Wisconsin. In traditionally conservative-leaning states like Arizona (77%), North Carolina (75%), and Georgia (68%), Trump holds even firmer ground. Harris, by comparison, faces an uphill battle as her support appears to erode. -https://mxmnews.com/article/f27f8d2f-24f9-4938-ad12-debe9139d98f?pollster-nate-silver-increases-trump-s-chance-for-november-victory
