Quantifying it

There's been a lot of debate about the human costs of "opening up." We now have a model from the University of Washington:

 

Based on only the current relaxations of social distancing guidelines, projected deaths have increased from 68,000 to 134,000. In other words, just the opening up that has been done is projected to cost an additional 66,000 lives. More extensive opening up hasn't yet been modeled, but the number would be even higher.

 

Is it worth it? I want to get out and resume some semblance of normal life as much as anyone. But at what cost? 

If we see a similar drop in life expectancy as during the great depression, we'll experience 1.8 million additional premature deaths.

Originally posted by: Boilerman

If we see a similar drop in life expectancy as during the great depression, we'll experience 1.8 million additional premature deaths.


We won't. Medical care is much better now than it was then. People are also, overall, much wealthier. Even the poor are much less poor.

 

If your argument is that damage to the economy will cause widespread deaths, that would only be if the federal government doesn't provide relief. And so far, it has.

Not counting Covid-19, what is the normal daily rate of death in America?  Seriously.  Somebody here can find it, for some year that did not have a pandemic.

 

Death rate per person = 1.  "Everybody dies. It's a law!" as Butch Cassidy said.


I know one thing for certain, in 8-9 months from now the birth rate will increase greatly...

Originally posted by: Candy Wright

Not counting Covid-19, what is the normal daily rate of death in America?  Seriously.  Somebody here can find it, for some year that did not have a pandemic.

 

Death rate per person = 1.  "Everybody dies. It's a law!" as Butch Cassidy said.


The death rate was 9.7 per 1,000 population in 1950. It fell overall, with some up ticks, to a low of 8.1 in 2010. It stayed there until 2012, and has been rising by 0.1 every year since. It was 8.8 in 2019.

 

Currently, about 2.9 million people die every year in the US. Therefore, an added 100,000 coronavirus deaths would increase the number by 3% of 8.8, or about 0.26, for a net death rate of 9.06 per thousand. (The reason why the increase is 3%, not 3.3%, is that some of the coronavirus victims would have died of other conditions.)

 

I was curious about the uptick in deaths per 1,000. Turns out that it's an effect of an aging population, which is in turn an effect of declining birth rates in the last several decades. The age-adjusted death rate continues to drop, albeit very slowly.

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