Nate Silver said his numbers show almost no impact on the race from Kennedy dropping out.
Nate Silver said his numbers show almost no impact on the race from Kennedy dropping out.
Originally posted by: Mark
Nate Silver said his numbers show almost no impact on the race from Kennedy dropping out.
Well, fine. The Kamalaslide is coming, barring a repeat of something like the Comey idiocy.
I'm wondering to what extent and when the polling reversals will level off. Harris has gained anywhere from 6 to 8 percentage points since her candidacy was announced. Does that REALLY mean that there were that many people who were going to vote for Trump if he ran against Biden but will now vote for Harris instead?? Seems AWFULLY high to me.
Of course, one aspect of polls is that the answers obtained depend on whom is polled. Almost impossible to obtain a truly representative sample.
Kevin, I think it is an issue of enthusiasm. No, most of those folks wouldn't have voted for Trump. They simply wouldn't have shown up to vote.
Likewise it is now likely that not as many Trump voters show up because it is looking more likely he will lose.
Beleive it or not there are a small group of folks that party affilation of the candidate doesn't matter. They vote based on who they think is going to win because they don't want to vote for a loser and Trump is looking like a loser right now.
Originally posted by: Mark
Kevin, I think it is an issue of enthusiasm. No, most of those folks wouldn't have voted for Trump. They simply wouldn't have shown up to vote.
Likewise it is now likely that not as many Trump voters show up because it is looking more likely he will lose.
Beleive it or not there are a small group of folks that party affilation of the candidate doesn't matter. They vote based on who they think is going to win because they don't want to vote for a loser and Trump is looking like a loser right now.
Fair enough. Though I'd like to think that people will vote based not on who looks more like a winner, but on who would make a better President. I realize that MAGA morons and Democrats alike give too much credit to/place too much blame on whoever is President when things are going well or badly. Therefore, policy, not personality, should be the impetus for voting.
Nonetheless, I realize that millions will vote for Kamala simply because she's multiracial, female, charismatic, etc. and not because of her proposed policies. But then, millions will vote for the Turd because...he's the Turd.
Of course, when I become emperor, no one will be able to vote unless they pass the equivalent of a high school civics test That would cut the MAGA vote down to about 50.
