Chiefs are a 3 to 3.5 favorite currently. At that line I would probably bet the Chiefs. However 2 weeks gives TB defense sometime to find the right scheme.
Chiefs. 38
Bucs. 27
Chiefs are a 3 to 3.5 favorite currently. At that line I would probably bet the Chiefs. However 2 weeks gives TB defense sometime to find the right scheme.
Chiefs. 38
Bucs. 27
depends what KC team shows up...they've won alot of ugly games against mediocre teams this year....and other weeks they look unbeatable. I lost my money on the Bills last week...so I'm sitting my wallet out of this game.
Where I would go with that is not to pick a side, but rather, to look for opportunities for a middle as the line crosses the 3.5 mark. There are various ways to exploit 1/2 point moves away from 3 or 4. It would be a lot easier if I was in Vegas, of course, and could go "shopping."
The other consideration is that almost all the "squares'" money tends to come in on Super Bowl weekend. Also, the public tends to bet the favorite. So my strategy would be to load up on the Chiefs now at -3.5 (it'll never be cheaper) and wait for the line to move across 4 by Sunday. If it does (Chiefs -4.5 or more), then I bet an equal amount on the Bucs, and kick back and enjoy the game, winning both bets if the Chiefs win by 4 and losing 5% of my action if anything else happens.
I think the Over 55 is a pretty strong play, too. That's another number that will probably go up by game time.
The public appears to really, really LUVVVV the Chiefs so far, which makes me suspicious--I mean, KC won the Super Bowl, and the Tampa Bay who--??, so why aren't they bigger favorites? The public would probably happily pay 5, 6, or even 7 points to bet on KC.
Look for the line move--I predict KC -4.5 or even -5 by game time.
Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis
Where I would go with that is not to pick a side, but rather, to look for opportunities for a middle as the line crosses the 3.5 mark. There are various ways to exploit 1/2 point moves away from 3 or 4. It would be a lot easier if I was in Vegas, of course, and could go "shopping."
The other consideration is that almost all the "squares'" money tends to come in on Super Bowl weekend. Also, the public tends to bet the favorite. So my strategy would be to load up on the Chiefs now at -3.5 (it'll never be cheaper) and wait for the line to move across 4 by Sunday. If it does (Chiefs -4.5 or more), then I bet an equal amount on the Bucs, and kick back and enjoy the game, winning both bets if the Chiefs win by 4 and losing 5% of my action if anything else happens.
I think the Over 55 is a pretty strong play, too. That's another number that will probably go up by game time.
The public appears to really, really LUVVVV the Chiefs so far, which makes me suspicious--I mean, KC won the Super Bowl, and the Tampa Bay who--??, so why aren't they bigger favorites? The public would probably happily pay 5, 6, or even 7 points to bet on KC.
Look for the line move--I predict KC -4.5 or even -5 by game time.
Betting middles does work. Problem being for me my local bookies have pretty much passed away or just quit for lack of action. If you go the middle route good luck, it does work more than one would think.
As much as I hate to say it, Tom Brady always seems to find a way to win the big game.
Originally posted by: Mark
As much as I hate to say it, Tom Brady always seems to find a way to win the big game.
My only incentive to watch the game will be the possibility, however remote, of seeing Brady intercepted six times, sacked twelve times, and finally carried off the field in pieces.
Chiefs 31 * Buccaneers 24
A second Super Bowl for Andy Reid !
I'm not betting the game, but bet several props. A couple of them are trying to hit middles on player performance. I did get an odds boost late last week on the first TD being scored by either Hill or Kelce, so I bet that.
One of the sports betting podcasts I listen to (or maybe it was a Captain Jack video) recommended looking for spots close to game time where you can bet the under on performance props for popular players. The thinking being that the public will get heavily involved in the 24-48 hours before game time and bet the number up.
One sure bet....gonna have some smoked brisket nachos and cold craft beer!
There's a golden rule for prop bets. The public LUVVVVVVS to bet on stuff happening--not on stuff not happening. It's the same principle that makes Under bets usually better value than Overs on nationally televised games (like MNF)..
So if you see a prop that Marcus Dinklewhacker will rush for 103 yards, or that Trayvon Butterfingers will catch 5 passes, the Under will usually be a better value than the Over, because the public will bet up the Over. And the closer it gets to game time, the more pronounced that effect will be.
If you make money following this advice, I expect a cut. If you lose, I never heard of you.
There's a golden rule for prop bets. The public LUVVVVVVS to bet on stuff happening--not on stuff not happening. It's the same principle that makes Under bets usually better value than Overs on nationally televised games (like MNF)..
So if you see a prop that Marcus Dinklewhacker will rush for 103 yards, or that Trayvon Butterfingers will catch 5 passes, the Under will usually be a better value than the Over, because the public will bet up the Over. And the closer it gets to game time, the more pronounced that effect will be.
If you make money following this advice, I expect a cut. If you lose, I never heard of you.
