Originally posted by: MaxFlavor
I'm sure the economy will react differently than normal when only foreign-born and government workers stop or reduce their spending, because of being unemployed, than if it were native-born workers. Everyone knows a native-born worker's dollar is much more powerful when spent than a foreign-born or a government worker's dollar.
Horse shit.
Originally posted by: David Miller
Horse shit.
My post was sarcasm, and I won't bother to explain.
Originally posted by: MaxFlavor
I'm sure the economy will react differently than normal when only foreign-born and government workers stop or reduce their spending, because of being unemployed, than if it were native-born workers. Everyone knows a native-born worker's dollar is much more powerful when spent than a foreign-born or a government worker's dollar.
While this is an obvious attempt at sarcasm, there is some truth to this statement, and it is part of the plan to address the systemic long-term debt issues facing the US economy....specifically by reducing 7% of the Federal labor force. That kicks in on October 1.
While it's true there will be a reduction in consumer spending (aggregate demand), the hope is that it will be a short-run phenomenon and that the newly unemployed government workers will find gainful employment in the private sector. Hopefully, these employees possess skills that are in demand or can be trained to fill the jobs the private sector needs — such as the 7 million skilled trades jobs that are currently going unfilled. The fact is that the Federal Government is bloated and our debt is unsustainable.
The Trump administration plans to spur private sector growth, increase GDP, and reduce the debt-to-GDP levels to something sustainable. Will it work? I hope so. The Trump Tax Cuts, energy policy, reciprocal trade agreements, reshoring manufacturing, Fed easing (too late) and US investment deals should help. So to your point, the economy WILL react differently in the medium to long term as government workers move to productive jobs in the private economy. They become productive taxpayers who fund the government rather than bureaucrats who produce very little (with notable exceptions).. Well, that's the hope anyway.
Here's what Treasury Secretary Bessent said about the strategy back in February:
US Treasury's Bessent vows to re-privatize an economy that is 'brittle underneath' | Reuters
Trades are always a good bet for having less school debt and a high paying job. I've been told AI will replace most STEM jobs, I can agree somewhat but just like when the automobile became a thing and horsewhips and buggy factories were put out of business, new jobs arise,
As a programmer myself, I've found coding with an AI assisting is fantastic and has made my job much more enjoyable and 10x more productive. I was feeling burnout after decades of coding and AI makes it a lot more fun. The code that AI produces is excellent, but you still need (at this point) people that can guide the AI to develop the right requirements and implement them.
Personally, I'm very excited with what AI can do for my job. I do see less demand for script kiddies and full stack developers working on their own without AI. If they do, they are falling way behind and cannot write as effective code as those pairing with AI. in fact, they will be and are an impediment to any team as they will be far slower to produce high quality code and applications.
I don't see AI creating a lot of new jobs. Ten years from now how much supervision and guidance will AI need from real programmers? Do you think one programmer supervising an AI will be able to replace say a 1,000 programmers?
Originally posted by: Mark
I don't see AI creating a lot of new jobs. Ten years from now how much supervision and guidance will AI need from real programmers? Do you think one programmer supervising an AI will be able to replace say a 1,000 programmers?
Ten years from now we'll likely have crossed the singularity. With quantum computing and AI we'll soon pass artificial super intelligence and the AI will continually improve itself far beyond our comprehension. At that point, pick your dystopia or paradise.
Originally posted by: Inigo Montoya
Trades are always a good bet for having less school debt and a high paying job. I've been told AI will replace most STEM jobs, I can agree somewhat but just like when the automobile became a thing and horsewhips and buggy factories were put out of business, new jobs arise,
As a programmer myself, I've found coding with an AI assisting is fantastic and has made my job much more enjoyable and 10x more productive. I was feeling burnout after decades of coding and AI makes it a lot more fun. The code that AI produces is excellent, but you still need (at this point) people that can guide the AI to develop the right requirements and implement them.
Personally, I'm very excited with what AI can do for my job. I do see less demand for script kiddies and full stack developers working on their own without AI. If they do, they are falling way behind and cannot write as effective code as those pairing with AI. in fact, they will be and are an impediment to any team as they will be far slower to produce high quality code and applications.
Im a coder too...and AI is coming for both of our jobs. The next coding language is going to English.
You will need people to build requirements and do unit testing. You dont need to have a computer science degree to do either one of those things.
Im glad Im nearing the end of my career. I feel bad for people graduating with IT degrees today. But then again I could say the same thing for just about any degree.
Time for UBI?
Originally posted by: CharlesII
While this is an obvious attempt at sarcasm, there is some truth to this statement, and it is part of the plan to address the systemic long-term debt issues facing the US economy....specifically by reducing 7% of the Federal labor force. That kicks in on October 1.
While it's true there will be a reduction in consumer spending (aggregate demand), the hope is that it will be a short-run phenomenon and that the newly unemployed government workers will find gainful employment in the private sector. Hopefully, these employees possess skills that are in demand or can be trained to fill the jobs the private sector needs — such as the 7 million skilled trades jobs that are currently going unfilled. The fact is that the Federal Government is bloated and our debt is unsustainable.
The Trump administration plans to spur private sector growth, increase GDP, and reduce the debt-to-GDP levels to something sustainable. Will it work? I hope so. The Trump Tax Cuts, energy policy, reciprocal trade agreements, reshoring manufacturing, Fed easing (too late) and US investment deals should help. So to your point, the economy WILL react differently in the medium to long term as government workers move to productive jobs in the private economy. They become productive taxpayers who fund the government rather than bureaucrats who produce very little (with notable exceptions).. Well, that's the hope anyway.
Here's what Treasury Secretary Bessent said about the strategy back in February:
US Treasury's Bessent vows to re-privatize an economy that is 'brittle underneath' | Reuters
"Bessent said that 95% of all job growth in the past 12 months has been concentrated in public and government-adjacent sectors such as health care and education, jobs offering slower wage growth and less productivity than private-sector jobs. Meanwhile, he said jobs in manufacturing, metals, mining and information technology all contracted or flatlined over the same period. "The private sector has been in recession," Bessent said. "Our goal is to re-privatize the economy.""Now... let's put this thread in a little perspective. In the US, 4 to 6 Percent unemployment has been considered a 'Fully Employed economy'. Typically, the number cited is 5%. The Drama Queen Propagandists here now want you to believe we're in a depression because the number is 4.2%. That's just laughable. Wake me when we get to 5%. Hopefully by then, mortgage rates will be 5%, we'll have real wage gains, and still be at Full Employment.And finally, note that AI is now destroying a ton of entry-level white collar jobs. It's going to be a lot harder to get hired out of your Ivy League school with your gender studies degree and $200K of debt. There's going to be a big shift. Learn a Trade. I hear ICE is hiring.AI jobs danger: Sleepwalking into a white-collar bloodbath
Bush cut taxes twice. Trump did it in his first term. All three times the CBo said it would increase the deficit. All three times the administration said it wouldn't. The CBO is 3 for 3 to this point. Now Republicans are cutting taxes again with the CBO and administration making the same forecasts. My money is on the CBO.
DOGE didn't reduce spending. Trump will leave office with greater government spending than Biden. Did you read the details of the Big Beautiful Bill in regards to more spending? Spoiler alert: Getting rid of park rangers isn't going to reconcile it. And getting rid of IRS auditors doesn't make the deficit go down.
and here's the big bomb in coming years. Companies will start cutting jobs because of AI.....but republicans gave companies huge tax cuts on the premise that they would create more jobs in America. What happens when they do the opposite?
Originally posted by: PJ Stroh
Bush cut taxes twice. Trump did it in his first term. All three times the CBo said it would increase the deficit. All three times the administration said it wouldn't. The CBO is 3 for 3 to this point. Now Republicans are cutting taxes again with the CBO and administration making the same forecasts. My money is on the CBO.
DOGE didn't reduce spending. Trump will leave office with greater government spending than Biden. Did you read the details of the Big Beautiful Bill in regards to more spending? Spoiler alert: Getting rid of park rangers isn't going to reconcile it. And getting rid of IRS auditors doesn't make the deficit go down.
and here's the big bomb in coming years. Companies will start cutting jobs because of AI.....but republicans gave companies huge tax cuts on the premise that they would create more jobs in America. What happens when they do the opposite?
You are so full of shit.
