https://www.facebook.com/reel/2060625714138247
https://www.facebook.com/reel/2060625714138247
This keeps getting misreported. It's been made to sound as if he made the bet just before the Series started. That's impossible, because the Astros were around minus 200, meaning $2 bet on them paid $1. So he must have made a futures bet at the start of the season; otherwise, no way would he have been paid 7.5 to 1.
Furthermore, he took the bet or bets at very, very bad odds--sucker odds. Most sportsbooks--in Vegas and online--had the Astros at +1000 or +1100 to win the World Series at the beginning of the season. He bet them at +750--much, much worse. So yeah, he won...but winning doesn't mean your bet was a good one. I suspect that he got charged a premium--in this case, lower/worse odds--by whichever book(s) he bet at. Add to that the tax implications, and he realized an actual payout of about +450--on a bet that should have paid about ten to one.
And maybe he had some kind of "hedge" set up in combination with a promo in his mattress stores, as he's done before--but the fact remains that hedges cost money. A $10 million sports bet usually costs about $1,000,000 in house edge/EV. That's not something a supposedly savvy businessman would do.
Of course, it makes for great theater, which maybe was the whole point. But he could have bought a whole bunch o'billboards for that $1,000,000.
