Would Canada and Mexico prefer to trade with Pacifica or Trumpland?

Nines, Mexico is in the catbird seat.  All of Trump's plans fall apart if they simply quit doing what they are already doing. 

1.  They don't have to continue to slow and then return the migrant caravans to Southern Mexico and make them start all over again. 

2.  They don't have to continue to accept the migrants that the United States wants to deport but has no place to send because their home countries won't take them back. There are currently 1.7 million migrants in the US that can't be deported because their home country won't take them back.  

3. Mexico could quit trying to stem the flow of illegal drugs into the US. 

Wait and see how many US taxpayer dollars are pumped into Mexico and Central America in order to bribe those countries into accepting these migrants.  We will be paying to house and resettle them indefinitely.

Bottom line: Trump needs Mexico more than Mexico needs him.

@ Mark

Over 80% of Mexico's total exports (valued at $144 Billion) flowed into the US in 2023; how/why would they endanger that relationship for their economy's sake? The total value of traded goods and services between the US and  Mexico is roughly $855 Billion, and of course Mexico's largest trading partner is the good ol US of A( and vice -versa). I'm not sure either trading partner can afford to sever their long-standing ties, sum total; both countries would develop a severe limp from a big trade disruption. If you look at the particulars, it appears to me that the US has much more leverage in this hypothetical wrestling match? And as far as tax payer  immigration dollar expenditures, how much have we already invested in this problem..sum total?

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html

If neither country can afford to sever the relationship, wouldn't the smart move be to call Trump's bluff? 

Mexicans are a lot more hearty than Americans, and most are used to not having luxury goods.  It will hurt the average American much more than the average Mexican. The research shows if Trump's tariffs are put in place it will cost on average 2k more for your American-made car and this is only if Mexico and Canada don't retaliate with tariffs of their own.  If they do all bets are off.  Try finding a new appliance if you have one that breaks.  Enjoy your $15 head of lettuce.  There aren't very many Mexicans living in Mexico who are going to care that they can't buy a $50k American car because of tariffs.  They weren't buying them anyway because they couldn't afford them.  The same goes for a lot of other stuff made in Mexico. 

What do you think the reaction will be when people start seeing large US manufacturing firms laying off large percentages of their workforce?  Using the auto industry example, what do you think Ford, GM, and Jeep will do if they can no longer get engines, transmissions and computer components for their cars? How many people do you think they will have to lay off?

Now here is the real kicker.  If Trump enacts those tariffs, China is immediately going to move into those markets filling the void on all the goods and services their citizens buy from us and they are going to buy up all those countries' exports that were being sold in America. They will eagerly buy every bit of Ag and energy output that Mexico and Canada can produce. 

Guess what?  Once you get Mexican and Canadian citizens hooked on those high-quality electronics, appliances and automobiles from China they will never go back to buying American.  You will have a total trade realignment and 30 years after Trump leaves office Mexicans and Canadians will still be buying BYD cars and GM, Ford, Ram, Jeep etc will have long since gone out of business.  Those export markets will simply be gone to us forever. 

It is incredibly ignorant and arrogant to think that Canada and Mexico have no other options besides America as trading partners. I guarantee you the Chinese government is already working the phones offering to fill the void. Trump is gifting our export markets to the Chinese.  BYD just made substantial investments in Mexico and Canada.  They are ready to fire up production in America's absence. 

Trump is the guy pointing a loaded gun at America's head while telling Mexico and Canada do what I want or I will pull the trigger. All Canada and Mexico has to say is go ahead and make my day Trump. 

We'll see. I don't see these trade relationships migrating towards the Armageddon you outlined..too much at stake and too much history and in-place components for both sides. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my plate of crow ( wih green chile) when appropriate.

Don't forget our trade relationship with Mexico and Canada isn't just about trade it is also about national security.  It benefits us because in times of crisis, we have trade partners next door that can supply us with food, energy and other raw materials. If those countries new primary trading partner is China we will no longer have that security. 

These transitions you speak of..what kind of timeline will they involve? These massive shifts in trade status would require some time..maybe beyond Trump's term? I mean, how fast can we shit down our own legs?

And I didn't mean to infer that either Canada nor Mexico couldn't seek other trade partners...never said that. But there's a massive amount of infrastructure and investment already in place in our current  trade logistics with both countries. Nor did I say that Trump shouldn't handle this situation with gloved hands..and ease up on the bravado a tad.

Canada can be trading partners with Pacific nations and Europe if they have to and/or want to. Like us, they border two big ocean thingies (you know what a map is, right?). Mexico, likewise, could find other trading partners. 

Why did Trudeau zip off to Mar El Asshole? Because he wanted to gauge whether Trump was serious or all bluster, and if the former, he was prepared to kiss his butt if that seemed to be the right course. Trudeau knows how susceptible Trump is to obsequiousness and flattery. Trudeau also knows that the inclusion of his country in Trump's border rhetoric is something new and therefore, probably just another something that Trump pulled out of his ass.

As far as Mexico goes, they wouldn't mind if the border was slammed shut..not at all. The number of deaths they suffer from imported US guns dwarfs the number of fentanyl deaths in the US; not to mention that the vast majority of that fentanyl is smuggled into the US by AMERICAN drug mules. And since like Canada, they border on two oceans, they have multiple alternative outlets for trade. So their "SOOOOOOOOCIALIST" President, as you characterize her, doesn't want to be bullied by Trump.

As far as whether Pacifica could or would defend itself against the Turd: it's pretty much implicit that if enough citizens of Pacifica voted to form a new country, they would be well aware of the possibility of being invaded and prepared to form an army, with its nucleus being the Pacificans who would already be in the armed forces and the military facilities that are already there. It would be not unlike the formation of the Confederacy; if you're a student of history, which your posts show that you're anything but, you would know that their secession was predominantly peaceful. The North invaded the South.

You vastly underestimate just how abhorrent people in Pacifica find Trump, his twisted Republican lackeys, and the shit they want to do to America. Perhaps that's because you live in a MAGA cesspool, and when Trump comes on TV, everyone stops what they're doing, falls to their knees, and starts licking the screen? That's not how WE roll, thank you.

There's one of those things you MAGAs find so annoying here...it's called a fact. That fact is the economic benefits we reap from immigration, which dwarf what you call "taxpayer expenditures." But if ya wanna focus on taxes...ILLEGULS contribute $95 billion annually in taxes paid (and yes stupid Tom, we all know that every single illegal is paid in cash, right right right, now shut up). The bottom line is that the reason we're so "easy" on immigration is that it's something we want and benefit greatly from.

And yes, severing economic ties would hurt both nations. BUT:

BUT

Mexico isn't going to let itself be bullied. It also knows that Trump won't be around forever.

AND

Trump appears to be more than willing to drive the US economy off a cliff.

"The bravado"? You mean the bluster and bullying? And do you REALLY think that the Turd can handle ANYTHING with, as you put it, "gloved hands"? Do you think he has the slightest inkling of the nuances and niceties of diplomacy (and I don't refer to his eager willingness to drop to his knees in front of Putin)?

The error in your thinking is your belief that Canada and Mexico somehow need us. They don't. They trade with us because it's convenient. But if that's choked off...China, for one, will be eager to fill the void. I'm certain that they've been salivating at the thought and are already quietly working behind the scenes, just in case Trump does crash his clown car into the US economy.

Migrants contribute $95 B annually in taxes paid..based on which info source? There's also a government hearing report that says "illegal immigration" as they call it costs the American taxpayers $150 Billion net annually. That incongruence between the info resources results in an annual deficit for the taxpayers. You'll claim my info is biased towards conservative input resources, right? Look at all those goofy conservatives spinning their info? Thus we're back to surviving on balogna sandwiches again (and we're outta Miracle Whip). I mean..whom's facts are close to accurate? Roll a pair of dice, I guess.

And yeah..Canada and Mexico do need US trade relations, including the convenience factor you pointed out, which affects revenues. Trudeau sure hauled ass to Florida to preserve it, apparently.

https://budget.house.gov/press-release/the-cost-of-the-border-crisis-1507-billion-and-counting