Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis
It's $1000 coin-in, not 1000 points (which would take $2000 on VP).
I've played so much VP and so many promos, I don't get any big whoop out of it either way. I run $1000 through an NSUD machine, my theoretical loss is less than $3, but I know that if I don't hit 2222 or a royal (and I probably won't), I'll probably lose something like $50. And that "free" buffet won't taste great.
That doesn't alter the desirability or advisability of the play. The only remaining question in such situations is: if the freebie isn't straight-up cash or free play, what's it worth to you? That may be different than the retail price. If you earn a comped meal at Bellagio of Cheesy Poofs and diet root beer, retail $139+tax, the only question is, what would you willing to pay for it out of pocket?
A local like Don the Dentist would probably be more hardheaded about this than a visitor. The latter would say, I'm going to gamble anyway, might as well get some goodies for it. Don wouldn't do it unless he actively wants that buffet (which he very well may).
And yes of course you're right. The expected loss can in almost no cases be the effective result after earning as little as 1000 points needed play in order to get a free buffet. I also play deuces wild and learned that the short term swings are mostly influenced by how many wild royals and 5-of-a-kinds I see during one session. Technically you can be even after thousands of hands even by not hitting the 4 deuces. But that only works if you get too many wild royals and 5-of-a-kinds. Otherwise you lose for sure. If the stretch of not hitting the deuces goes through 3 or more days then it's a bit annoying. My results, including my high error rate in a long sessions show that I can barely break even even with 1 set of deuces if I play sessions that are longer than 12 hours in one day (with break times of course). One Royal per week is needed to cover these gaps. But we all know how hard it is to get them.