South Point April Promotion

Results for Monday 4/17:

Received $105 for 6 spins, a .53% return.

Results for Wednesday 4/19

Received $140 for 6 spins, a .71% return

Month to date = .62% return

Not that it's really germane here, but how are you doing overall? Above or below expectation? I assume you're playing NSUD.

Way below expectations. Yes, the wife and I are playing NSUD.

Hope this turns around. Four more days to go.

With over $120K coin-in for each of us for the month, the June mailer should be pretty good.

  Don, I am curious - just what were your expectations?  As I see it, .62% above what one normally gets for their play amounts to a bonus, abeit being a small amount. Possibly before your current trip ends you may receive one of the larger awards. 

His expectations were, mathematically expressed, 0.9973 X (his coin-in of $120,000) + (the mathematical expectation of the promotion, which can be estimated at 0.62%) x (his coin-in of $120,000).

This means that his expectation, or EV, was (0.62 - 0.27) x $120,000, or +$420. (For those of you who believe in numerology, today is 4/20!) He reports that his results were well below that mathematical expectation.

That doesn't say anything about the value of the promotion one way or the other. He was unlucky, but he had no "expectations" the way you mean it.

I played Mon and Wed so 6 spins.  I was at .5% exactly but only 6 spins.  

I sometimes use this promotion to justify playing some other games like bonus poker Super times.  A bit more fun and puts me near 100%.  Like I said, I really just play VP to get some comps these days.  Poker is what i really enjoy.  

I flopped 4s full for $300 and hit one quads for $50 in poker room.  I find the people mainly in that room pretty fun to play with.  Wide variety of folks.  

I've found that room to be pretty nitty the last few times I've played. That said, the overall play can be shockingly poor at times, given the amount of time so many of these people obviously spend there (they should give South Point as their address; after all, it's where most of them eat and sleep). What I find irritating is that many of these nits will play AA or KK without raising preflop, or betting postflop, in the hope of hitting a high hand. Then there are the players who need to collect 150 hours' worth of dust to get into some freeroll or the other. What a life. Yecch.

One thing that bothers me a lot more than it probably bothers you is that the collective political climate is several degrees to the right of Attila the Hun. I got SOOOOO sick of Joe Biden burned my toast blah blah blah diatribes, I finally told one particular bloviator to please STFU. Then the gang turned on me (I obviously had to be a bleeding heart liberal to want to play poker instead of listening to a drunken speech about Hunter Biden's space alien laptop).

There's also a "one set of rules for regulars and another for tourists" mentality, which I hasten to add that the floor doesn't always adhere to, but the regs sure expect it. And should a foul turista win a few hundred and walk away to join his wife at the buffet? BOY, do the degen regs get steamed when that happens! Likewise if one reg gets clipped for a couple of stacks by a tourist, who then proceed to give it all and then some to some other player. The reg who lost to the tourist will be kicking the family dog for a week. Look out, Barky!

Kevin, when you asked how was I doing overall, I took that to mean how was I doing on the game itself, not including the promotion.

With $158,400 coin-in on NSUD, the expected result from the game itself and not including any promotions or cash back, is a loss of around $427. Our loss has been much greater than that. I won't get into specifics.

I meant in toto. Your mean (not median) result should be (-0.27+0.something something) x (your coin-in). As long as 0.something something is greater than 0.27, you have a positive expectation (when excluding cashback). I was going to estimate how many standard deviations your result was from the mean. We've all spent some time on the left side of the bell curve, but I was curious as to how far you are for this month.

FWIW, I'm guessing you're about 2 SD to the left. Maybe someone with better computational skills than I could say more accurately. If I'm right, that would put you in the "shittiest 5%" results category. Been there, done that, unfortunately.

One reason to consider your results as a whole, i.e., including the promotion, is that the EV of the promotion is unknown. Also, as far as that goes, isn't NSUD at SP inherently +0.07%? I mean, it doesn't make sense to not include the cashback when figuring expectation, right? You should have scored $475 in cashback, which pretty much negates your expected loss--makes sense for a net EV of 100.07%.

I based my thumbnail calculation on an assumption that breaking even would have been a -1 SD result. Again, I'm sure my estimate is off by at least a little. Can't really tell without knowing what the actual EV of the promo is and the amount of your loss.