2012-12 College Basketball

Play for 12/7/11 770 W.Kentucky/S. Illinois UNDER 122.5 Might see some sloppy play here. S.Illinois has not played since Nov. 25 and has not had many games as of yet, coach still searching for rotation. W.Kentucky has been one to turn the ball over playing several freshman. Both teams going to try and win games in the 60s

Play for 12/7/11 749 Alabama -5 Road favorites have not been kind to me recently, but I am going to lay this with Alabama coming off a loss. Dayton a team that will take plenty of 3pts and I do not see them shooting a high percentage against Alabama's zone. Alabama should have advantage inside and Alabama no doubt will be focused on Dilliard to be sure he does not go off. Dayton just does not get to the FT line enough for me to see them getting close enough in the end.

Play for 12/7/11 776 Boise St -12 Do not see enough scoring here for Portland. Portland a team that just has not been shooting well and need Mitrovic to shoot closer to his % from last year to be competitive.

Play for 12/7/11 791 San Jose St. +21 I was going to wait on this one, but I am not feeling that confident that we will see a better number. Feeling that Cal may be a little over valued thus far, especially offensively. Typically I would not back an over matched team that will rely on the three as heavily as San Jose St, but I feel that Cal has not really shown a desire to score in transition consistently enough and gets so much of their offense from Crabbe. My thought is we get a lot of value from a team that will continue to try and shoot themselves back in the game.

Play for 12/7/11 771 Middle Tennessee St -4.5 Almost was going to ignore this game with fear that my plays were becoming too road favorite heavy; but I am going to play it. I just do not see how we can not continue to back Middle Tennessee here having covered I believe every game. Middle Tenn has been one of the most efficient offensive teams and also averages 72 possessions a game. UAB going to try and slow this down and limit possessions, and hope that the defensive presence of Cameron Moore can cause some problems for Middle Tenn. Middle Tennessee should have too many scorers on the floor for this to be a problem (Dendy, Knight, Sulton, Jones all over 50% FG%). Middle Tenn has also been finding the open man and sharing the ball very well (7 players with double digit assists). This play will be my "I will be more upset if it wins and I don't play it, than if I play it and it loses" play for the day. So this was at -5 at CRIS by the time I finished this. Still some -4.5 and you may still get it, but since I have been using CRIS I will count this play as -5.

2-3 Today 89-52 YTD (3-2 2 unit plays) Thought I might get the Nova game with it 67-60 at the 6 minute mark, bad shot selection and missed some open shots I thought. Than another couple of 3 pt chances that missed when the game was already decided. But on the other hand probably got lucky with the Marquette/Wash Under as the pace of that game was frantic. Sloppy play early was the difference.

809 Weber St +13 I believe Weber St has the talent to score enough here.

808 Denver +2.5 Let me first say that you may be able to get a better number here if you wait but I have already played it and won't be able to post later. The lack of movement thus far is surprising as I believe Iona has become a public favorite the way they score. Make no mistake about it though this Denver team is good and Scott probably has the most talented group he has ever had running a very disciplined Princeton offense. Also this is just a bad spot for iona going west playing a mid week out of conference game in the midst of a stretch where they do not play another home game until January 6. Also teams are just not able to play high scoring basketball St the magness (?) arena in Denver. Very unique home court advantage combined with the high altitude perhaps helps Denver play their game. opponents just do not put up big numbers there and Denver is going to make it a point to dictate the pace. All 5 Denver players will be going back on defense after a shot as this team is a believer of one possession one shot on offense. Denver should be able to frustrate iona into some bad shots and have to give all the motivational edge to Denver. Gotta believe everybody and their brother would be on iona laying this small number and the lack of line movement is ominous.

4-4 Today 93-56 YTD (3-2 2 unit plays)

546 Detroit -5.5 Probably a bit of a risky play here as Detroit is undermanned. At home and having played their last 3 games very competitively; in the same time that Detroit has played 3 games, W.Michigan has not played a game. I never like taking teams in the first game after a long layoff, also W.Michigan has not shot the ball very well and also could be without the services of PG Mike Douglas.