2012-12 College Basketball

753 Indiana -3 Surprised by this line move and this could be another of my road favorites that crash and burn, but I just feel that the talent gap between these two teams will be enough to have give Indiana the cover on the road. I have to wonder what this line could have been if Indiana was not coming off two pretty bad games and it could be a lot to expect this young team to respond on the road, but for me it has more to do with the Nebraska offense. I do not think Nebraska can keep this in the 50's or low 60's and win this game. Nebraska appears to have played well against Wisconsin but needed poor shooting from Wisconsin to stay in it. I just do not see enough offense from Nebraska and thinking Indiana will give maximum effort to avoid losing 3 in a row.

819 San Diego St +9.5 No doubt probably a "sharp" move on New Mexico as you have two teams with identical records playing, but one is ranked in the AP and the other is not. Again a little surprised that this opened at 8.5 and is now 9.5, I was expecting it to go the other way if it moved. A couple of thoughts I had when looking at this game; New Mexico no doubt a very solid team playing here at home, "The Pit" a very tough place for opponents. How severe is the injury to Jamaal Franklin? All reports are that he is probable, but will he be limited? Then again this is a player who only recently worked his way into the starting lineup, prior to this he was the spark off the bench but his shot selection at times was questionable. Only 6 San Diego St players remain from the team that beat a decent New Mexico team at the Pit last year and this could be the toughest road game yet for San Diego St. San Diego St has played 8 out of their last 9 at home, with the other game being just down the road at San Diego. I can understand the perception of them not being at the right energy level for this match up. Then again they did play at Arizona and at Baylor; early in the year but still played well. My thoughts are that every test and tough game that San Diego St has had thus far they have responded well. They have not been flat or not ready for an opponent, and they battled back in tough games and did not give in. Prior to the UNLV game no doubt they played some cupcakes at home, but they handled all of them. I feel 9.5 is too many in this MWC game when I feel that the road team is the superior team.

775 Akron +2.5 Feel like we are getting Akron at a good time as they appear to be playing much better as the year goes on. This team should understand that they can not afford to stumble before a big game against Kent St if they want to keep hopes of an NCAA tourney bid. Alumni Arena is not typically known as a tough place to play for opponents with Buffalo only averaging about 2100 fans per home game.

815 Northwestern +10 Northwestern starting to think NCAA tourney but they will need to continue playing well to have a chance. I am still not big on Wisconsin; once you get past the PG play there is not enough their for me to continue to lay double digits with them. I think we are starting to see the teams in the Big 10 much closer than we thought at the beginning of the year and once you take out Ohio St I think we will continue to see a small margin of victory overall in these conference games.

798 Creighton/Missouri St UNDER 145 Missouri St was able to cause some problems for Creighton last time they played and handed Creighton their only conference loss. Being at home this time should contribute to Missouri St getting the game on their pace and Creighton might come out either tentative or with too much energy and cause them to miss some shots. Missouri St can not afford to try and match baskets with Creighton and they also will be a desperate team not wanting to lose 3 in a row. I think we will see a more focused defensive effort from both teams here. I do like Creighton to win this game, but my money will be on the under.

[QUOTE=bluehorseshoe;50178]819 San Diego St +9.5 No doubt probably a "sharp" move on New Mexico as you have two teams with identical records playing, but one is ranked in the AP and the other is not. Again a little surprised that this opened at 8.5 and is now 9.5, I was expecting it to go the other way if it moved. A couple of thoughts I had when looking at this game; New Mexico no doubt a very solid team playing here at home, "The Pit" a very tough place for opponents. How severe is the injury to Jamaal Franklin? All reports are that he is probable, but will he be limited? Then again this is a player who only recently worked his way into the starting lineup, prior to this he was the spark off the bench but his shot selection at times was questionable. Only 6 San Diego St players remain from the team that beat a decent New Mexico team at the Pit last year and this could be the toughest road game yet for San Diego St. San Diego St has played 8 out of their last 9 at home, with the other game being just down the road at San Diego. I can understand the perception of them not being at the right energy level for this match up. Then again they did play at Arizona and at Baylor; early in the year but still played well. My thoughts are that every test and tough game that San Diego St has had thus far they have responded well. They have not been flat or not ready for an opponent, and they battled back in tough games and did not give in. Prior to the UNLV game no doubt they played some cupcakes at home, but they handled all of them. I feel 9.5 is too many in this MWC game when I feel that the road team is the superior team.[/QUOTE] Looks like this line will continue to move at +10.5 now and I am seemingly on the wrong side before the tip.

818 CS Fullerton -6.5 CS Fullerton off 3 straight loses and facing a UC Riverside team that is 4-1 in the Big West. I believe Fullerton has the better personnel and talent in this match up and that after two big home wins against UCSB and Cal Poly, Riverside will not be able to bring the defensive effort to stay with a determined Fullerton team. Going with the better offensive team at home to pull away in this one. I will count this play as -7 as I did not realize that the -6.5 did not come back at CRIS in the afternoon when I posted. Got the -6.5 at another shop, but I have been using CRIS as my standard for posted plays.

810 UTEP -5.5 My logic with this game really is just based on the early move. When I see 2 teams, with average to below average records, that are not going to attract much action I do like to tail line moves on the home favorite at some key numbers. With this going from 4.5 to 5.5 and still being under 6 I am going to jump on now. Combined with that I also see UTEP as a team that has managed to play well at home and come up with some surprises in my opinion. I would say they are trending upward in spite of their 9-9 record; there really was not much expected of them this year. Conversely we have an ECU team that with their talent and transfers were hoping to challenge for the C-USA title as their were high hopes for Lebo to improve upon his 18-16 first year.

778 Miami OH -3.5 Similar logic to my play on UTEP; two teams here that are not going to attract much attention and a slight movement toward the home favorite. I really thought Miami OH would not be as bad as they are this year, but I really like the fact that they were able to get a win last game with Mavunga only scoring 8 points and going 2-9 from the field. They have been far too reliant on him thus far and need other players to score. Perhaps that can continue here as they try and get some momentum.

1751 1H Richmond -1 Playing a trend of GW averaging 27.1 pts in the first half while giving up 33.8. Richmond is giving up 29.3 while scoring 33.1 in the first half. Richmond the more efficient team and playing a team in GW that does not shoot very well. This game being a "proximity rival" I like Richmond to come out focused and not give away a game against a team that is near the bottom of the A 10. Richmond getting a balanced contribution of scoring should contribute to them being able to have the halftime lead.