556 WYOMING PK (2 Unit play)
This play for me has to do with stats and records but probably really more about name and public perception. You have a team in San Diego St, with name recognition and being ranked in the AP top 25 all year playing a solid Wyoming team that in my opinion is still very unknown at a PK line. I would think SD St is going to get a ton of action here and I was considering waiting to pick this and see if we can squeak out a point or two, but I like the play and am going to pick it now. Very telling that this line came out at PK with the odds makers knowing they did not want to give the home team any points here. San Diego St already won the game they were supposed to lose; at The Pit of New Mexico as a 10.5 point dog and won outright. Much has always been made about teams traveling to New Mexico and Wyoming with the altitude and SD St showed they could win at altitude. Now I am not really sure how much more difficult 7000 ft is (I believe Wyoming is about this high), versus the 5000 ft of New Mexico but I would think that is partly why this line is where it is. San Diego St has had a very friendly home schedule this year. The trip to Laramie will be the furthest trip since going to Waco, TX back on November 15th, ages ago really. Since that game they have played road games at Arizona, Santa Barbara, San Diego, and most recently a solid performance at The Pit in New Mexico. So far 19 games at the friendly confines of Viejas Arena versus 5 road games and one of those just being down the road at San Diego, so really 4 road games. That is an astonishing unbalance in my opinion and at some point this team will have road troubles as most college kids do and I think it will start in Laramie at the "Dome of Doom". This is also a tough trip for them where they go to Wyoming then Colorado St. I think it is highly unlikely they win both of these games and even more probable that if they win one it will be at Colorado St after they tasting defeat at Wyoming.
I also really like the emergence of Wyoming F Leonard Washington (strong big body at 6-7) and if he continues to shoot well, will be a match up problem for almost any team. I thought he could have been special when he was at USC even though he not fully develop in his two years there. He will help take the scoring pressure of Luke Martinez, who I will expect to improve off of one of his worst shooting games of the season. Wyoming has made its mark this year with their defense and by limiting opponents possessions, they have the 2nd best Opp FGM/per game allowing a meager 18.5 FG and allowing only 47.3 FGA/per game (7th in D1). Wyoming does not turn the ball over and does not allow second chances. Turnovers/Game 10.8 (13th in D1) and Def Rebound% of 75.3 (16th in D1). We already saw a San Diego team get frustrated playing a similar style team in Air Force at home. Air Force is a team that is similar to Wyoming in that they will make teams play defense for 35, Air Force actually averages more possessions per game than Wyoming. SD St was frustrated by this and had Air Force been not so inept offensively (17-49 FG, 1-18 3P), Air Force could have really challenged SD St to win that game. Quotes from San Diego after that game "Nothing comes easy and rarely does it look pretty when you play Air Force," coach Steve Fisher said. "I've been here 13 years and I know that. This is a good team we played tonight. They're precise with their offense and they make it hard with their defense. I was probably like some of our fans, I got a little bit uptight with some of the things that went on, but that's playing Air Force." "When you're an uptempo team like us, it's a little bit frustrating guarding a team like that," Tapley said. "I mean, they're really persistent with their offense; backdooring, cutting, curling, flaring, it's just tough to guard. You have to maintain for maybe the whole 35 seconds on the shot clock. And today we did a bad job of defensive rebounding. They got the offensive rebound and they had it another time, so it was like another minute."
I think that Wyoming may frustrate SD St early and San Diego could find themselves playing from behind early. As it is Wyoming is 3rd best in 1st Half points allowed at 24.3, if they can keep that up they will be in good position to win this game. Wyoming so far is 10-4 ATS, and 7-1 ATS as a home favorite but I do not think the majority of bettors have caught on yet as the margin of victory over the spread is still 9.65 points. I take this as either the lines makers or bettors having not caught on yet, as I even picked against them when they played Colorado St. Hopefully we are not jumping on too late, but since this game is against what I consider a public team that has also been a money maker (SD St 10-6 ATS) I think the home team at PK has to be the right side here.
