5 truths about this board & basketball

5 truths about this board & basketball I've been teasing Anthony about this board since it's inception, because he gets so worked up. But after spending a little more time here than my usual once a week drop-in lately, I can see why he's in a state of permanent annoyance. 1. Those who take shots tend to be the people who contribute very little bitching about those who contribute a lot. 2. Those complaining shot-takers could have spent their time doing statistical research, analyzing boxscores for phony results, searching the web for info on the players/coaches/teams, and otherwise coming up with useful information that they can originate with. But they'd rather keep hitting refresh while they wait for others to do their work for them, so if they lose it isn't their fault, but someone else's. Or maybe they're just lazy. 3. Those who complain about not getting the same numbers as sharp people on this board don't understand that the originators get the best number. Burger is going to get a better number on a halftime play than you, because his play will make sense, he'll get it in at the same time as other sharps, and then it'll be a point worse. 4. Shooter, I just realized recently, had great info and observations in his threads whether you were playing his games or not. Never paid attention to the guy because riding message boards to pick up late plays just isn't my thing. Then a few weeks ago I checked him out early one morning and saw that his commentary on his action contained things that I didn't know. So for a few days he was part of my morning routine. Now he's not here any more. I wish I realized this a while ago, as I think I might have had a better basketball season had I been paying attention. 5. This is worth mentioning only because Dude is so sharp, and I agree with him 92% of the time. And the 8% of the time I don't agree with him I simply change my opinion. But I think he's wrong about March. Late season college, conference tourney, and late season NBA provide lots of good situations that are more important than the season long stats and numbers that create the lines. NCAA tourney has good spots too, but there's only 63 games (or 67 or so now) to exploit them. That's it. Sorry to interrupt the bitching.

[QUOTE=RealWorldSports;40418] 5. This is worth mentioning only because Dude is so sharp, and I agree with him 92% of the time. And the 8% of the time I don't agree with him I simply change my opinion. But I think he's wrong about March. Late season college, conference tourney, and late season NBA provide lots of good situations that are more important than the season long stats and numbers that create the lines. NCAA tourney has good spots too, but there's only 63 games (or 67 or so now) to exploit them. [/QUOTE] I will say this about March....there are a few spots where they make a mistake on a line, and we(Walter, Donnie and Smokey--when they are not bowling) do get involved in March from time to time, but....it is nothing like November,Dec, and January. The other 4 points you made, I for the most part agree with. As always, Best of Luck.

[QUOTE=TheDude;40420]I will say this about March....there are a few spots where they make a mistake on a line, and we(Walter, Donnie and Smokey--when they are not bowling) do get involved in March from time to time, but....it is nothing like November,Dec, and January. The other 4 points you made, I for the most part agree with. As always, Best of Luck.[/QUOTE] I woke up and decided to check out the lines and market today like before I went into semi-retirement from sports betting(four years ago) and found four soft numbers in hoops at a reputible online shop today. Went 3-1 with them. Chump change as usual for me but nice to know some things haven't changed. ;) I looked today because conf tourney's to me are not too difficult and the kids were pre-occupied at that moment...After the first round, the big dance is tough. Also, I suck at the NIT for whatever that is worth too. :) I do miss Shooter. I thought it was awesome how he was able to shotgun just about every sport for everyday...Even though he is no longer posting, I hope he is still out there firing away. :D

for waht it's worth- I am an ametuer at this stuff but love it. I find there are 4 or so plays a day during conference tournies that are worht anything and do pretty well on them. I do drill down and work at it and enjoy it. But the reason I loved the stuff Shooter was putting out was- wow- how do you know thatmuch about that many sports. European soccer? Man it could've been Ausie rules for all I know. I loved that he had that many opinions and didn't try to keep up with betting what he betted, but you can be sure I was checking results and looking for clues. That's what it's about isn't it? The clues. That's how we get to the place where Dude and Fezzik and Burger and Shooter are. I dig it. I miss the major posters. I enjoy all the posts though. It's all a learnin'. Why did Burger stop posting too? What is happening to the gang? Thanks to all.

Thanks KO. Excellent commentary.

[QUOTE=RealWorldSports;40418]I've been teasing Anthony about this board since it's inception, because he gets so worked up. But after spending a little more time here than my usual once a week drop-in lately, I can see why he's in a state of permanent annoyance. 1. Those who take shots tend to be the people who contribute very little bitching about those who contribute a lot. 2. Those complaining shot-takers could have spent their time doing statistical research, analyzing boxscores for phony results, searching the web for info on the players/coaches/teams, and otherwise coming up with useful information that they can originate with. But they'd rather keep hitting refresh while they wait for others to do their work for them, so if they lose it isn't their fault, but someone else's. Or maybe they're just lazy. 3. Those who complain about not getting the same numbers as sharp people on this board don't understand that the originators get the best number. Burger is going to get a better number on a halftime play than you, because his play will make sense, he'll get it in at the same time as other sharps, and then it'll be a point worse. 4. Shooter, I just realized recently, had great info and observations in his threads whether you were playing his games or not. Never paid attention to the guy because riding message boards to pick up late plays just isn't my thing. Then a few weeks ago I checked him out early one morning and saw that his commentary on his action contained things that I didn't know. So for a few days he was part of my morning routine. Now he's not here any more. I wish I realized this a while ago, as I think I might have had a better basketball season had I been paying attention. 5. This is worth mentioning only because Dude is so sharp, and I agree with him 92% of the time. And the 8% of the time I don't agree with him I simply change my opinion. But I think he's wrong about March. Late season college, conference tourney, and late season NBA provide lots of good situations that are more important than the season long stats and numbers that create the lines. NCAA tourney has good spots too, but there's only 63 games (or 67 or so now) to exploit them. That's it. Sorry to interrupt the bitching.[/QUOTE] Actually I think many of us joined this board because we would get Fezzik's picks in exchange for $25/month. I don't care what anyone says, that's the way this was portrayed and that's why I joined. I, like many, saw and heard the stories of Fezzik winning 2 straight Hilton contests, and saw the records off to the left and joined. Then I realized winning contests and betting is not the same. His record is no where close to what he did in any contest. Why have I stuck around then? It's only because of the info and plays I get from some of the other posters. I don't need to contribute anything to the board, I am a paying customer. That IS my contribution. I'm paying for plays (and hopefully winning plays). I got no return for my money from Fez in football. No great angles, no great winning insight. But I have got winners from other guys and that's why I am here. I can say whatever I want to say, positive or negative, about the board, as long as it's true and as long as I pay. I'm not lazy, far from it, I just don't have winning insight on my own. You don't want my own plays. That's why I pay for winners from other services. Your points 3-5 aren't directed toward me, but you are 100% wrong on points 1 and 2. It's not my job to do research and give plays. I'm a client.

I'm not directing this at you, BTW: The systems alone (fat and happy in CBB, Week 9 in the NFL for teams with byes in Week 10, MLK NBA totals, 8 of clubs in CFB and NFL, road favorites >=5 in NBA, and MUCH more) make this site profitable. You don't really need to do the extra research beyond the concepts you can learn here if you're a recreational bettor.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;40433]I'm not directing this at you, BTW: The systems alone (fat and happy in CBB, Week 9 in the NFL for teams with byes in Week 10, MLK NBA totals, 8 of clubs in CFB and NFL, road favorites >=5 in NBA, and MUCH more) make this site profitable. You don't really need to do the extra research beyond the concepts you can learn here if you're a recreational bettor.[/QUOTE] Can you please explain: Week 9 in the NFL for teams with byes in Week 10 8 of clubs in CFB and NFL Never heard of 8 of clubs but what makes bye week 10 so special vs. bye week 9 or bye week 11? I don't follow you... I understand the BBall fat & happy / MLK / road fav >=5 angles...

Hah, now I will direct a response to you :) 8 of clubs has been discussed at length on these very boards. Eight of clubs is just, in a game in which the home team is the favorite, taking the road dog or under at post if the line has moved two (NCAA, one for the NFL) points after midweek. This one is only slightly profitable. The key is deciding which line to compare it to. If I recall correctly, it's Wednesday for NCAA and Thursday for NFL, but it has to do with when the lines have been hammered into place, so that much can fluctuate. This does not include line moves based on news. Teams with winning records and a Week 10 bye are amazing ATS in Week 9. 80% Something crazy like that.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;40435]Hah, now I will direct a response to you :) 8 of clubs has been discussed at length on these very boards. Eight of clubs is just, in a game in which the home team is the favorite, taking the road dog or under at post if the line has moved two (NCAA, one for the NFL) points after midweek. This one is only slightly profitable. The key is deciding which line to compare it to. If I recall correctly, it's Wednesday for NCAA and Thursday for NFL, but it has to do with when the lines have been hammered into place, so that much can fluctuate. This does not include line moves based on news. Teams with winning records and a Week 10 bye are amazing ATS in Week 9. 80% Something crazy like that.[/QUOTE] Appreciate it... so regardless of whether the road dog moves from +7 to +9 or the road dog moves from +5 to +3, you always take the road dog? Sometimes you gain points and sometimes you lose them, but that's irrelevant? I still don't buy the week 10 trend. Nothing behind it, must be more coincidence than anything, since it's not based on anything of value. Teams heading into byes are 53.3% anyway, and this trend went 1-3 in 2008 and 1-1 in 2009. It's had 2 winning seasons since 2005.