5 truths about this board & basketball

[QUOTE=IceTea;40440]Appreciate it... so regardless of whether the road dog moves from +7 to +9 or the road dog moves from +5 to +3, you always take the road dog? Sometimes you gain points and sometimes you lose them, but that's irrelevant? I still don't buy the week 10 trend. Nothing behind it, must be more coincidence than anything, since it's not based on anything of value. Teams heading into byes are 53.3% anyway, and this trend went 1-3 in 2008 and 1-1 in 2009. It's had 2 winning seasons since 2005.[/QUOTE] 8 of clubs is about fading line moves. So you would only take the first example you list. As is often the case, I screwed up the Week 10 one. [url]https://www.lvasportsboards.com/showthread.php?t=5594[/url]

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;40442]8 of clubs is about fading line moves. So you would only take the first example you list. As is often the case, I screwed up the Week 10 one. [url]https://www.lvasportsboards.com/showthread.php?t=5594[/url][/QUOTE] So you are saying it's "slightly profitable" to take a road dog if that dog is getting 1 or more points on Thursday than they were getting at open? I assume you take the under if the total has gone up 1+ points too? Or is the under correlated w/ just the dog's line movement?

The theory is that on gameday home favorites and overs are taken more than they should, and because this is not built into the line, it provides value in the road dogs and unders. Because line movement (that isn't based on news) tends to be linear on gameday, that's why you wait till the last minute to act.

I haven't been avoiding this thread, just been busy with a book deadline (Casino-ology 2, another good one from Bill Zender). Of course I appreciate KO's comments and they certainly resonate. The thing about LVASports is that it really IS different in terms of our policies and the way we work, but a lot come here expecting the usual quota-driven number of picks from the principals. Picks are important and if we didn't have them we probably wouldn't exist, but they aren't everything here. Honestly, I still like what we're doing a lot. You can win with the information here and it isn't expensive. We're discussing amending a few things, but for the most part, we'll continue as we are. And yes, KO has teased me about this and my "aggravation level" for some time. I like it.

Service or Community? [QUOTE=IceTea;40429]Actually I think many of us joined this board because we would get Fezzik's picks in exchange for $25/month. I don't care what anyone says, that's the way this was portrayed and that's why I joined. I, like many, saw and heard the stories of Fezzik winning 2 straight Hilton contests, and saw the records off to the left and joined. Then I realized winning contests and betting is not the same. His record is no where close to what he did in any contest. Why have I stuck around then? It's only because of the info and plays I get from some of the other posters. I don't need to contribute anything to the board, I am a paying customer. That IS my contribution. I'm paying for plays (and hopefully winning plays). I got no return for my money from Fez in football. No great angles, no great winning insight. But I have got winners from other guys and that's why I am here. I can say whatever I want to say, positive or negative, about the board, as long as it's true and as long as I pay. I'm not lazy, far from it, I just don't have winning insight on my own. You don't want my own plays. That's why I pay for winners from other services. Your points 3-5 aren't directed toward me, but you are 100% wrong on points 1 and 2. It's not my job to do research and give plays. I'm a client.[/QUOTE] So there's no need for you to contribute, because you are a customer, yet later in the thread you're asking your fellow customers for information on 8 of Clubs and other methods that they mention. Those other customers, out of a sense of community and desire to help one another, provide you with answers on particular strategies, particularly Joel. Joel isn't pulling the "I pay $25 a month, that's my contribution" card, he's contributing to a community. As far as I know, anyone other than Anthony, Fez, and Alf are contributing to a community and not benefiting in any other way from being here. And a 30-second review of your posting history indicates that your entire posting experience here is asking questions of other members of the community. Yet you are adamant that you have no responsibility to contribute yourself. You say you aren't a lazy person, and I'm sure you're not in other aspects of your life. But you're not a resourceful person when it comes to this activity. Rather than post "8 of Clubs? what's that?" a resourceful person who wanted to learn, understand, develop skills, and succeed, would have gone up to the search option and searched for "8 of clubs" to see the genesis of the method and the discussion surrounding it. All the successful sports bettors I know are resourceful people who want to learn and are willing to share. When it comes to sports betting, you seem to want to have things handed to you. Maybe you'd be better off focusing on the areas of your life where your skills and temperment are more well-suited to succeeding.

I am paying for plays and insight. The dribble gives me some insight on exactly who is posting plays. More plays, less dribble.

A bit unfair [QUOTE=RealWorldSports;40454]So there's no need for you to contribute, because you are a customer, yet later in the thread you're asking your fellow customers for information on 8 of Clubs and other methods that they mention. Those other customers, out of a sense of community and desire to help one another, provide you with answers on particular strategies, particularly Joel. Joel isn't pulling the "I pay $25 a month, that's my contribution" card, he's contributing to a community. As far as I know, anyone other than Anthony, Fez, and Alf are contributing to a community and not benefiting in any other way from being here. And a 30-second review of your posting history indicates that your entire posting experience here is asking questions of other members of the community. Yet you are adamant that you have no responsibility to contribute yourself. You say you aren't a lazy person, and I'm sure you're not in other aspects of your life. But you're not a resourceful person when it comes to this activity. Rather than post "8 of Clubs? what's that?" a resourceful person who wanted to learn, understand, develop skills, and succeed, would have gone up to the search option and searched for "8 of clubs" to see the genesis of the method and the discussion surrounding it. All the successful sports bettors I know are resourceful people who want to learn and are willing to share. When it comes to sports betting, you seem to want to have things handed to you. Maybe you'd be better off focusing on the areas of your life where your skills and temperment are more well-suited to succeeding.[/QUOTE] First, I do not know RSW or IceTea. I do believe that this post makes some very valid points although it is also a bit unfair in some regards. At times, myself included, we get lazy and just ask a question rather than do the research ourselves and this can frustrate and that is understandable. As a memeber who is not an originator I can not really contribute picks to the site and you wouldnt want mine anyway (believe me on this, LOL). I do try to contribute in other ways. I try to answer new guys questions where I can or help others when they cant find something on the site etc or sometimes just let guys know we appreciate their efforts. I read EVERY post on EVERY forum so that I can try to stay informed and dont till old ground. My attitude is that the $20 odd bucks per month helps pay the freight so to speak. I get a lot from the other members so I try to contribute where I can. If I was paying $100 or more a month then I feel I could rightly sit back and just get the picks. I also dont think it is right for someone to just take and not give on this forum when they are not paying a significant amount of money. And even though IceTea said this I think it is a bit unfair to say he does this. He has made a bunch of posts and while, yes a lot are questions, there are also some where he has been a giver rather than a taker. He, for instance, was very helpful in the discussion of Sharp and Boxer's service. In fact he did a good bit of work on the records etc. Finally, EVERY person has different incomes, time constraints, information, abilitites and agendas so there will ALWAYS be problems and disagreements on a forum such as this.

[QUOTE=RealWorldSports;40454]So there's no need for you to contribute, because you are a customer, yet later in the thread you're asking your fellow customers for information on 8 of Clubs and other methods that they mention. Those other customers, out of a sense of community and desire to help one another, provide you with answers on particular strategies, particularly Joel. Joel isn't pulling the "I pay $25 a month, that's my contribution" card, he's contributing to a community. As far as I know, anyone other than Anthony, Fez, and Alf are contributing to a community and not benefiting in any other way from being here. And a 30-second review of your posting history indicates that your entire posting experience here is asking questions of other members of the community. Yet you are adamant that you have no responsibility to contribute yourself. You say you aren't a lazy person, and I'm sure you're not in other aspects of your life. But you're not a resourceful person when it comes to this activity. Rather than post "8 of Clubs? what's that?" a resourceful person who wanted to learn, understand, develop skills, and succeed, would have gone up to the search option and searched for "8 of clubs" to see the genesis of the method and the discussion surrounding it. All the successful sports bettors I know are resourceful people who want to learn and are willing to share. When it comes to sports betting, you seem to want to have things handed to you. Maybe you'd be better off focusing on the areas of your life where your skills and temperment are more well-suited to succeeding.[/QUOTE] You're right - Joel easily could have told me nothing and I would have had 2 do the research myself. Actually, that would not have been surprising since I've seen it frequently on the board. I've never had a bad word to say about anyone on the board other than it's founders. And most of my criticism has been constructive and hopefully led (or leads) to change that benefits most of the board. Such as more plays or more info (either is fine) from Fez. I know I spoke for the majority when I said that. I think you'd find if you reviewed my posting history (and I have no idea what its like but my guess is) about 70% constructive criticism, 20% random info about "yes, the market can be beat", and 10% questions. Feel free to tell me if that's wrong. Your viewpoint is reflective of probably half the members here, tops, my guess. I don't know how many people are actively paying for membership, but I'd say no more than 50% find that this forum is a great "community" to be part of because they charge $25 and keep the riff raff out. These are people who post a fair amount. I'd then say that at least 50% of the members don't view it that way. We view it as somewhat of a service that we pay to see the plays of guys smarter than us. We joined because of Fez. We want to see his winning plays and thought process. So personally I disagree that this is a hand holding community. There are just a few real long term winning posters here out of the entire membership group. Most of them post no info about anything, just the play. Because they don't want others to find out how they came up w/ the play. There are a few times when real, quality, winning theories are shared. But I think Joel grabbed all of them and its very telling that you can count on 2 hands the number of winning theories shared, yet this place has been open 1.5 yrs and has how many members? This is not a community where people love to spill theory and advice. Far from it. It's 5% sharps with solid plays who share little theory, 10% square sharps who discuss theory from time to time, 15% squares who chime in from time to time, and 70% other (could be sharps, square sharps, squares, or oddsmakers) who don't say jack, they are here to see what everyone else says. And I may be conservative on that 70%...

[QUOTE=pacificmariner;40455]I am paying for plays and insight. The dribble gives me some insight on exactly who is posting plays. More plays, less dribble.[/QUOTE] Im sure that this is the exact type of post that drives Anthony et al crazy. This site is not supposed to be a picks site. You are paying $20 bucks a month. You should not expect a picks service for that amount of money. Any reputable service would charge you FAR more to just "get the picks". That being said, you are entitled to just "lurk" on the board and get the insight and picks of others because you are helping by paying the fees. But as a "lurker" I personally believe that you are not entitled to ask a bunch of questions, bitch about stuff, etc as you dont "contribute". Just my opinion.

Ice Tea, duly noted BKeiller's comment that you have shared info and other contributions here in the past. I merely did a quick scan of your most recent posts. I'm not here that often, and maybe I just gravitate to the less picky/more throughtful stuff. You guys are also likely better judges than me of the ratio of picks/strategies/player info, etc. that is shared here. Maybe it's not at the level that I thought it might be. If that's lacking, spend more time out on your own gathering infromation and learning things. Study coaches, see how they do in specific situations. Study what sitations the Bulls are playing well and playing unders, and see if those situations were simlar when he was running the Celtics defense. Are the Celtics no longer doing well in those situations, leading to the opportunity to get value by going against a trend? Look at how there's no quality difference in Conference USA from top to bottom. How can you use that in their conference tourney? Look at how there's a huge gap between Duke/UNC and Wake Forest in the ACC and how garbage teams Georgia Tech might be overrated as a result of blistering Wake Forest a couple of times. Instead of sitting around waiting for wisdom, go find some yourself and be the first to find it.