719 Sunx/SPURS UNDER 206, 3 weight Not sure what this total will close at. The public will bet 'over', but the clear right side is under. This total likely drops down a 1/2 point with this release, and from there I really don't know. If it does drop, and you get in late, you may want to pick off the bet later especially in Vegas where there will be no shortage of 'over' money pouring in on the weekend.
In Rd1 of the playoffs, after two games in Dallas averaging 192 points, the Spurs dialed up the defense, and every game by the River Walk landed in the low 180s, 10 points lower than on the road. Given the Spurs won all those games, a very logical conclusion would call for a similar game plan from them of playing a more deiberate pace, and focusing on Defense. At the end of Game Two, Duncan Donut was literally unable to run, exhausted. Look for the coaching staff to scream to players "SLOW IT DOWN". Also, Spurs attempted to go smaller and quicker and faster game 2, but the annuouncers commented "The small Suns lineup is better than the Small Spurs!".
With a similar pace reduction as the rd1 series, I expect the current series averaging 212.5 will drop down to an expected 202.5 points, but what makes me like this under even more is that games 1 and 2 did NOT see high scoring 1qs (which you typically see in playoff games landing above 210). Instead, 8 point leads created more pace than normal in the 4q (Spurs were desperate), and some scoring late, so the 4q's saw scoring averaging well over 50 points. If we get a Spurs blowout win OR a close game, we should see a much lower 4q output. Also, the whistles were blowing everywhere game 2, I don't expect as many fouls.
UNDER!!
