Alan Boston(akaBoston Red)--WOW!

Again Fez, you act like crushing basketball totals would be easy if you knew who the backup pointguards were. When you have posted two straight years of losing picks on this forum, why don't you start figuring out who the backup point guards are? I don't have any problem with you posting losing picks. You can find people all over the internet that will charge more money for losing picks. My problem is with your attitude about how easy it is to beat this or beat that. If it was that damn easy, RAS wouldn't be 50% this year and you wouldn't be worse than that with all of your picks in this forum over the last two years. And to act like your picks would be 55% instead of 45% due to line movement is ridiculous. That means that 20% of the bets you lost, you only lost by whatever the line movement was. Nobody with any experience in this business believes that. If you would just say "Man, this is hard. These are my picks, but I've only been hitting about 45% on my posted picks the last couple years", I would have no problem with what you say. But to act like this is easy and your picks are money in the bank is doing a disservice to everyone new to this board. I'm sorry to be combative. I respect you and your opinions. I just want some transparency for people new to the board and new to sports gambling. Sports gambling is not easy. I don't want anyone emptying their bank account and thinking they're getting ready to strike it rich by betting the picks you give out, or for that matter, that anyone else gives out. Unless you are willing to do this full time, putting in 40 plus hours a week, you're not getting rich. Hell, you're probably not breaking even.

And that's why this isn't a picks site.

I have been hit with ridiculous bad luck on picks variance on this site Very tough to explain, I am at a loss for it. The best explanation I have come up with is that I'm too careful to not give out stuff that has moved in the line......but......THOSE are often the BEST games to play, even sans a little line movement. Why don't I know all the players. A: IT TAKES A LOT OF TIME!! Also, i have a big disadvantage, in that I really cannot stand basketball, the game with all its borderline fouls and the players, don't even get me started. RAS is doing just fine in his own betting this year. Catch22. If I knew what Boston did about teams/spots/etc no doubt I would do great. If Boston knew what I did about advantage betting he would do great. Bottom line, I may be wrong, but I just don't think Boston is motivated by the key bottom line: MAKE MONEY. Maybe I'm wrong and he IS doing stuff like playing 1h +11 parlayed to UN 64 but I doubt it.

I know in '09 your Hilton picks were huge ATS winners even though you said the spread had changed too much to bet them. This past year that wasn't the case, and it was especially hard to judge since you quit caring with a few weeks left. From what I've seen, unless a football game goes off a 3 or off a 7, or a basketball game goes past 2, I don't think the line movement changes very many winning bets. I think people that make a living "middling" the market have another job. Good luck to you in the future.

The "another job" is in-game betting. With reduced juice and anticipating line movement, middling is a viable option, but reduced juice outs are scarcer by the day. But that's all you can do when the lines are as accurate as they are. It's still a better alternative than randomly picking sides and not worrying about line movement.

no secret n=mt in game betting is a big paet of my betting but........what a time drain

[QUOTE=tradermac;41220]I know in '09 your Hilton picks were huge ATS winners even though you said the spread had changed too much to bet them. This past year that wasn't the case, and it was especially hard to judge since you quit caring with a few weeks left. [/QUOTE] No offense, but Fez's hilton picks were terrible all year long last year. It wasn't just the last few weeks. Not sure what record you were looking to. Thru Week 8 he was 17-21-2 (44%) and that's playing stale numbers! Thru Week 11 he was 23-30-2 (43%) and was literally a few spots up from dead last in the whole tournament. I think out of ~250 people he was in the ~225 range. I was embarrassed for him.

how did you feel when he won it 2 years straight? embarrassed?

Ice Tea, I said in '09 his picks were winners. Not the case in '10. You must have misread what I wrote. I still think he's good at what he does. You don't win that contest 2 years in a row and not be good at it. And before I even knew who he was I can remember seeing his name at the top of the leaderboard. I think '10 was an anomoly, not the norm.

Since we in an AB thread, I heard on a differnt podcast, not quadjacks, Boston likes both favorites. Butler stronger.