Digging a bit deeper into the games tomorrow. Where is all the line movement on these games? I do not remember such little line movement in sweet sixteen games. But maybe that is just because largely these lines in the tourney have been so tight.
Wisconsin v Syracuse
Boston 4:15
Open Syracuse -4, 119
Current Syracuse -3.5 120.5
This game really has given me some problems, as of now it is the only one I do not have a wager on as of yet. My eyes tell me the match up favors Syracuse but I have continually undervalued this Wisconsin team. It is difficult for me to back a team in Wisconsin that continues to rely so much on the 3; this year 36.3% of their total points have come from the three. That is just too high a number to count on in my opinion. Even more staggering is that in their last game against Vanderbilt they scored only 60 points and were 10-33 from three. Thats 50% or their points from the three shooting 30% and they won the game. How do they continue to do this? Wisconsin plays great man defense and is probably better than any team at slowing the game down and limiting opponents possessions. They also just do not turn the ball over and continually seem to value possessions more than their opponent. Wisconsin is also very good at not allowing second chances for their opponent getting to nearly 75% of the defensive rebounds. These are keys that Syracuse thrives on; they get to over 35% of offensive rebounds, force 10.4 turnovers a game (rank 9) and also rely on getting 7.1 blocks a games (rank 3). I do think Syracuse zone is a bit suspect to be scored on (even when they had Melo) and sometimes it seems this Syracuse team needs to be woken up by an opponent before they can get serious and pull away. I thought Syracuse benefited greatly with the match up they received with Kansas St as I did not think K St had the perimeter players to give Syracuse much of a problem. Wisconsin does have one of the better PG who knows how to run their offense and the Wisconsin offense may be the perfect zone buster if they are hitting a high clip of those threes. I feel that Syracuse may be more than content to allow Wisconsin to take 33 three pointers, I feel it is going to take a great outside shooting effort for Wisconsin to cover this number. Anytime I get a number less than 4 I am usually going to just go with what I believe to be the better more complete team. I think Syracuse will be able to score more efficiently than Wisconsin and I think that once Wisconsin gets behind if the threes aren't falling this might not be that close at the end. So I am definitely leaning Syracuse -3.5, I am also looking at the OVER 120.5. Understanding that this has already taken a couple ticks up I still think the only play would be on the OVER. Wisconsin seems to have no problem taking fouls early if they are behind in the last couple of minutes and although Syracuse is not a great FT shooting team I think we could get a nice spurt in points at the end here. These lines have been so tight though I am hesitant to play any number that has already passed me by. Probably going to have an official play on one of these, but leaning Syracuse and Over.
Louisville v Michigan
Phoenix 4:47
Open Mich St -4.5, 124
Current Mich St -5, 125
I played a small play on Louisville +5 although I would not say I am extremely confident on that play. I just think Louisville is a team that is going to be in most every game they play no matter who it is so I wanted to get some points. Early analysis would seem to call attention to the fact that Louisville could have some problems with the size of Mich St Green, Payne and Nix. The key for Louisville will probably be on the pressure they can put on Mich St guards to see if they can force turnovers because I think they will have to get some easy baskets to win this game. I think Siva has been playing very well and do give the edge in the back court to Louisville, although they are probably going to rely on the three more than Mich St will in this game. I was not overly impressed with either one of these teams in their last game and think they both benefited from some poor shooting outings from their opponent. I thought St Louis had plenty of open looks to be more in the game against Michigan St and thought that even though New Mexico dominated the boards, they could not hit the big shot and had some untimely turnovers. Louisville is going to have its hands full against this defense, but I do think they have the shooters to keep them in the game. I also favor Louisville if the pace of this game picks up and they can get Michigan St to run a bit on the offensive side. No real thoughts on the total although I would probably play the UNDER at 125, this match up just sounds like an under with these two teams. With these two coaches yelling at them these refs might not want to call many fouls, also I think these teams are going to work just as hard if not harder on the defensive side versus the offensive side.
Cincinnati V Ohio St
Boston 6:45
Open Ohio St -7.5, 131
Current Ohio St -7.5, 129.5
This is a game where I see two teams that are very even, I may be crazy but I actually thought this game would have opened at something like Ohio St -3. I have my biggest play of the day on Cincy +7.5 and took some at +8 also. I have liked what Ohio St has done this year and do still think that they could be the most complete offensive team left in the tourney. They have never really relied on the three this year, play good inside out (when sullinger passes), and have shown the ability to pick up or slow down the pace. Having said that I really think this match up could favor Cincinnati. First inside Gates has the size to cause Sullinger some problems, we saw this last game facing Sacre when Sullinger decided he was going to take a couple of 3 pointers. He did make both of them, but I think Cincy will be more than happy to give him that shot. Also I do not think Ohio St is going to be able to press or cause Cincy any problems bringing the ball up the court. Craft is going to have a bigger challenge on the defensive end in this game versus the last couple of games. I like what Cincy has done thus far and think they experiences they have had will have prepared them more for this versus Ohio St. Cincy got a huge lead against Texas, but kept their poise and did not panic when Texas made a furious rally. Cincy shares the ball and plays good team defense; the perimeter players seem to know the perfect time to gamble for steals and are quick to recover. Against Florida St I thought Cincy was able to overcome a difficult shooting night to come away with a win. Florida St also did not go quietly and Cincy was able to continue to get scores and stops late. I believe Ohio St has flamed out in the sweet sixteen in the last two years if I am not mistaken and really I would not be surprised at all if they fail to get by a Cincy team that is playing well. I hinted earlier in this thread that I liked the Under and still do; the ball pressure and interior presence that really both these teams have will make things difficult on the offensive side.
Florida V Marquette
Phoenix 7:17
Open Marquette -2, 146
Current Marquette -2, 147
The night finishes up with the offensive output for the day as these two teams are not going to waste much time getting the ball up the court. Before the tournament started I really like Florida's chances to be in this game. I thought they benefited greatly by getting Virginia in the first round and then possibly a small Missouri team in the second round. I did not even think Virginia was worthy of being in the tourney and little did I know that Florida would not have to even worry about Missouri but instead get Norfolk St. Has any other team had such an "easy" time up to this point? Probably not but Florida is not worried about that. I have already played Marquette -1.5 and think that they will pull away late in this one. My eyes tell me Marquette is a little tougher and a bit better on the defensive side of the ball. I like how Marquette responded in a tough game against Murray St and think those types of games are always an advantage over a team that has not experienced adversity in the tourney. Also like Wisconsin, Florida is a team that has been difficult for me to back as they have relied on the three for 38.4% of their total points (rank 4). I just hate backing teams that rely on the outside shot in the tourney. Although Florida has not really needed to rely on it so far I think they are going to be up against a different kind of defense here. Marquette does have the perimeter players to cause Florida's guards some problems and although this Marquette team is not that big they always seem to play bigger in my opinion. Crowder is a presence on the floor and seems to just go after rebounds harder than most. Having said that Florida still could have the most talented player on the floor in Beal and he is someone capable of changing a game. Florida also has the experience of Walker and Boykin but in a game that surely will feature some points I am going to back the more complete team that has shown the ability to score against many different types of defenses, laying only 2 Marquette is the play for me. As far as the total I would go Under, but no real reason other than in the tourneys we never seem to get the shootouts we expect.
For me as I have already indicated in my thread I will have significant plays on Cincy and Marquette. If I was to just pick one of those it would be tough but I would probably rather take the 7.5 versus laying the 2.
