April NBA Thread Thread

April NBA Thread Thread 512 ATL HAWKS +2 2 weight. 2 at a few Vegas shops, fine to play 1.5

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Fez, I would like some insight on your New Jersey selection. Knowing that road favorites of 5.5 or more cover 55% of the time, you still chose New Jersey. You may be on the right side of this one, but there is no way I could ever bet on something that I knew long term was a 55% loser. I realize that you aren't going to give out any mathematics behind the selection, but could you say whether it was mathematics, feel or something else that would lead you to make that selection? Thanks.

[QUOTE=tradermac;41394]Fez, I would like some insight on your New Jersey selection. Knowing that road favorites of 5.5 or more cover 55% of the time, you still chose New Jersey. You may be on the right side of this one, but there is no way I could ever bet on something that I knew long term was a 55% loser. I realize that you aren't going to give out any mathematics behind the selection, but could you say whether it was mathematics, feel or something else that would lead you to make that selection? Thanks.[/QUOTE] i believe it is road favorites of 5.5 or more coming off a loss cover about 55%, not just road favs of 5.5 or more.

NY Doc, I didn't know that. If that is the case, it's no wonder I've been losing money on that this year! Can anyone say yay or nay on this?

[url]https://www.lvasportsboards.com/showthread.php?t=6732[/url] Being off a loss may give better or worse results, but the numbers shown here are for any situation.

The Point Spread Analyzer computer program would of course spit out sub-systems. The angle is about 55 percent insofar back as the Killer Sports program goes back to verify, though I guess you will have to take my word that going back to the early 80s though mid 90s it was more like 60 percent--so upper 50s going back decades. The original master system that has the best z-score was road favs of 5.5 or more off loss as an underdog. But subsystems like off a road loss (even if they were a fave) also had z-scores above 5.0. The larger theory is a good team (likely are if they are laying 5.5 on road) losing to another good team (the good team was an underdog) will take out their frustrations on an inferior foe (getting a significant number at home). Hence one not need to be married to exact numbers to follow, but the numbers make it empirical. Sure wish Orkin still made that program. There were a lot of good ones in NFL and NBA, but this one had a high z-score that kept holding up.

Every time we back the truck up and put one in the win column we peel a section! Alright alright!![url]https://phoenix.fanster.com/2009/05/23/major-league-to-the-rescue/[/url]

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