Butler I know some smart people who like VCU but I think they're due to crash and I like Butler -2.5 (prefer -2 -120).
How did VCU get here? With a huge win over Kansas. They're "domination" of a Kansas team that has such a strange propensity to choke in the tourney saw them shoot 12-21 from 3-point land, meanwhile Kansas shot 2-25 from behind the arc.
That's how upsets happen. 3-point variance is the biggest factor in unexpected results in college basketball.
VCU's Offensive 3-point luck: VCU has played 39 games. In the tournament they've had their 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th, and 12th best 3-point shooting performances of the season. After hitting only 31% of their 3's in the month of February, they are shooting lights out in this tournament, 53-117 for 45.3% from outside the arc. Offensive 3-point shooting variance has been firmly in their favor.
VCU's Defensive 3-point luck: VCU did not have a good 3-point defense this season. In 3-point defense they ranked 10th of the 12 teams in the CAA during conference play in the Colonial. Yet to reiterate, they somehow they held Kansas to 2-25 from 3. Their 3-point defense has been phenomenal, allowing only 22-104 for 21.1%. Surely they've played some good D, but luck is clearly on their side with opponents shooting very poorly from outside.
Butler coach Stevens is as good as it gets at taking away what the opponent wants to do. The Bulldogs have held 9 of their 10 NCAA tourney opponents under their team total during regulation during their 2-year tourney run. They have a big coaching edge here. They also have the Final Four hoopla experience edge, dealing with the pep rallies and media interest and ticket requests already last year. Look for Butler to throttle VCU offensively and play a solid offensive game themselves. VCU is not nearly as good as the past 2.5 weeks suggest. In their last 8 games in the regular season they finished more than a single point ahead after regulation only a single time (a 4-point win over James Madison), going 3-5 down the stretch with a 1-point win and a double OT win.
Look for Butler to stretch out to a nice win, and I wouldn't try to talk you out of the under or the VCU team total under either.
