CBB "True Steam" for TUE 1-12-11

CBB "True Steam" for TUE 1-12-11 Good Morning Gentlemen...This is an extremely busy time, with so many sports being played simultaneously...But I believe that this opens up plenty of opportunities for bettors, if they are willing to remain patient and selective...As bettors, one of the biggest edges that we have is the ability to say NO BET...And many times, the lines are RIGHT...and there is no value either way...But many times, this isn't the case...and it's those times that we are able to step in and take a profitable position... The bottom line is that as sports bettors...the only thing that we can strive for, is to get our money down...when we are getting the "Best of It"...And although you won't win them all, if you are able to get your money down when you are getting the best of it...you will definitely win more times than you lose... So that the only way that the books will get ahead on you...is if you allow them, by not employing proper money management...And after years of being a bookmaker myself, I can tell you for certain...that's exactly what they bank on... Each day, and each week for football...I try to isolate those "early moves" that my own ratings/numbers support the most...And I try to pass them along, with some of the reasoning and manuevers made on these "steam" plays...We've had a lot of success with them, so I thought that I would pass them along here as well...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner Allright fellas...we nailed another CBB "True Steam" Bet last night, a SU DOG WINNER...To take us to "4-1" on CBB "Early Moves"... We are now "39-20" (66% ATS) OVERALL on "True Steam" Bets...since we launched this Blog... Tonight, I've been able to isolate another "Added Board" wager...that according to my own Ratings/Numbers, still has plenty of value...Even after the books have adjusted for all of the "steam" they had to take on this game... Remember, the books are adjusting for all the public bettors that are now making their way over to basketball, from football...So that means if we can strengthen our own numbers during this transition...we should be able to uncover some spots, that offer up even more value than ever before... That's what the Betting Syndicates bank on to beat the books in all sports, each and every season...And there is very little that the books can do to prevent this, or to protect themselves... More importantly, for tonight's "True Steam"...I believe it's one of those instances where the sportsbooks can only adjust so far...Because it's an "Added Board" game...And more importantly, it's a TOTAL...Which means that it will get very little volume from the betting public... And because of that, there is only so much of an adjustment that the books can make for "steam" coming in...Because they are aware that if they do go ahead and adjust this Total to where they would like...or even, to where I feel it should be...then it will really open the door for them to get killed on this game...Because the "middle" opportunity would then become too profitable for the Outfits to pass up... And what we saw early on this season...and pretty much, every season...is that the Wiseguys do so much damage with Totals, because the oddsmakers numbers are so WEAK, compared to those that the Outfits are using...So when the Betting Syndicates came in on those Totals, early in the season...the books were forced to continue adjusting...Especially, since there was very little public money to help them get any kind of balance...Those adjustments opened up huge "middle" opportunities, and I can tell you for certainty, that the Wiseguys really cashed in on them... This is why I love these kind of "True Steam" Bets...Because I can almost be 100% sure, that the books would like to adjust the Total even more...But for the reasons that I just touched on...THEY CAN'T...And therefore, we find ourselves with what I like to call, a "true" value bet...VR [B][FONT="Arial Black"]CBB "TRUE STEAM" for TUE 1-12-10 : 1.) TENN ST/IOWA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)[/FONT][/B] I was extemely surprised that CRIS opened this Total up at 132 last night...Because I had made my own line for this game 136.5, and that was my "Fair Line"...While my "True Line" was actually 138...But when I looked at the "match-up stats" that every bettor checks daily, and are available everywhere...it became obvious why they went ahead and brought it out so low...And the reason for this is the amount of points that Iowa has scored in 3 of the L/4 games...and Tenn St has in 2 of their L/3...As well as the "perceived tempo" for BOTH...So that made me assume that this Total was based more on "Public Perception"...than anything else... I was also surprised that the Wiseguys left the Total alone for this game at first...so that it was still 132 at the end of the night...But as I've covered in so many past blogs, we know that there are very few books that offer Totals on CBB the night before the games...Especially on "Added Board" match-ups...And more importantly, those books that are willing to offer a betting line the night before...are extremely limiting the amount of money they are willing to book... So it makes perfect sense, for these Outfits to wait until more "outs" are available...And the limits are higher, before they go ahead and tip their hand on what position they are going to take... That's exactly what happened here, because we saw that this morning...over an "8 MINUTE" period, enough "steam" came in on the OVER 132, 132.5, & 133...to force the adjustment up to 134...Where this total is now almost all across the board...VR

Vegas runner which is the best web site to check for opening lines. Thankx

[QUOTE=atscrusher;14795]Vegas runner which is the best web site to check for opening lines. Thankx[/QUOTE] There are a lot of sites that show the opening lines..I'm not sure if it's ok to post them, so please forgive me...But if you google it, I'm sure you will find a handful that are accurate... What I will tell you is that the 2 books that you should use to guage the opening numbers are CRIS & OLYMPIC... I like CRIS because they have the balls to put the lines out first most of the times...But I also like that OLYMPIC has the balls to have an "opinion"...which we all know is so rare in this day and age...Where 90% of sports books are moving their lines based on "air"...rather than actual "MONEY" being bet... Back in they day, prior to so many line-services and the internet...the majority of books didn't move their numbers until they were bet into...These days, they simply look at their screen and can instantly see when there is a "move" elsewhere, and can then adjust without even booking a single penny... That's why the betting market was much less efficient back then, and you can middle and scalp so much easier...Don't get me wrong, we are obviously still betting into an inefficient market, it just takes a little more work to find those inefficiencies...Best of Luck, and Thank You...VR

Are you the fellow from the recent CNBC show on "illegal" gambling?

Outstanding stuff [QUOTE=VEGAS-RUNNER;14796]There are a lot of sites that show the opening lines..I'm not sure if it's ok to post them, so please forgive me...But if you google it, I'm sure you will find a handful that are accurate... What I will tell you is that the 2 books that you should use to guage the opening numbers are CRIS & OLYMPIC... I like CRIS because they have the balls to put the lines out first most of the times...But I also like that OLYMPIC has the balls to have an "opinion"...which we all know is so rare in this day and age...Where 90% of sports books are moving their lines based on "air"...rather than actual "MONEY" being bet... Back in they day, prior to so many line-services and the internet...the majority of books didn't move their numbers until they were bet into...These days, they simply look at their screen and can instantly see when there is a "move" elsewhere, and can then adjust without even booking a single penny... That's why the betting market was much less efficient back then, and you can middle and scalp so much easier...Don't get me wrong, we are obviously still betting into an inefficient market, it just takes a little more work to find those inefficiencies...Best of Luck, and Thank You...VR[/QUOTE] Not just the pick but the mechanics and the rationale behind how things work. Very informative regardless of the outcome of the pick. Thanks for posting! That right there folks, was worth your $25.....

Nice post/play, thank you. Do think you need to stress that [maybe] you can play into a total that moved 2 pts if it is an added game whereas better off staying away from a similar move in an on-the-run game. And of course you need to be able to put the position on in decent size You are certainly on to something with a respect for both money and The Greek and a disdain for moving on air. So use it to your advantage on liquid games, as I'm sure you do. For instance, 70% of the bets are on an admittedly awesome Baylor squad tonight and yet line movement not proportionate--only one side for me here. Ohio St less obvious, but same idea and a smaller bet for me. Spurs more obvious and a v big bet for me tonight, etc Good luck

didnt get there. iowa over/ parlay bet I guess this was a big steam game, im sure it wont be the last that wont get the money. I had this game in a 7 team parlay with a mix of cbb and hcokey. I guess thats why they call this "gambling" so it goes...

[QUOTE=parlaynow;14841]I guess this was a big steam game, im sure it wont be the last that wont get the money. I had this game in a 7 team parlay with a mix of cbb and hcokey. I guess thats why they call this "gambling" so it goes...[/QUOTE] i guess that wont be the last 7 team parlay you lose either. Did the write up make any sense to you at all?

.Thanks for the info i had to ask that question because the site ive been using has to many type errors. I forget about cris because they dont accept U.S money anymore. This site is worth the 25 fazzols i dont know what the rest of them ladies are complaining about keep it coming LV RUNNER