Celtics/76ers Game 6 total I thought I'd play a little game of thumbs up or thumbs down to the 2 star under by Fez and the strong opinion of Dr. Bob on the under for tonight's game.
I looked at it a few ways. First I assumed it was just a RS game just to see what I may have come up with and I think I would have had as total of about 176.5 pts and perhaps I would have adjusted that number a little bit in the RS for pace of the games during the season and maybe a spice or two I dreamed up on my own. But the number would be in line from this perspective.
But we know it is a playoff game so I looked at it only using the team's playoff stats and the total does seem high. I think I would come up at around 171 if I only used playoff stats. No special spices not sure which way I may add a point or two but not enough to not think that under 175.5 isn't a decent bet.
I think the big thing the Dr. indicates that I'll have to trust is that playoff games are slower paced on average the later in a series they are. I think the last game was somewhere around 85 possessions for each team which would be slower than I would expect. I peg these teams at around 89. But they have gone over 90 possesions in 3 of these games so far but they haven't made it to 95.
The really good news is that if the 85 comes up again I think this bet would be much more likely to win and the fact that the shooting was such a high percentage last game has helped the line value. I think at 90 posssessions we can win this bet under with normal shooting and game situations
How do we lose? The Celtics and their shooting percentage probably. They are 4th highest in the playoffs and I suppose as we get closer to 90 possessions it is going to be tight if they're shooting well.
The only rationale thing to do is give the play a thumbs up. It looks to be even more than a marginally good play that I could almost be critical and say it is a play that the Dr. should have 2 starred and Fez should have 3 starred. I just want to stir the pot. Good luck.
